Bodrum FK 0-0 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodrum FK at 36%, yet in-form Göztepe provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bodrum FK vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Göztepe travel to Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu to take on Bodrum FK. The game is scheduled for Monday 10 February 2025, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bodrum FK — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bodrum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodrum FK at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Bodrum FK are significantly better at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Göztepe have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Göztepe are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bodrum FK, 1 for Göztepe and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Göztepe winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Bodrum FK in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 30% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
Göztepe in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodrum FK 33% versus Göztepe 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodrum FK 33% | Göztepe 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodrum FK 1.25 xG and Göztepe 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodrum FK attack 0.616 / defence 0.906 | Göztepe attack 1.080 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.679 / away 1.240. Bodrum FK's attack strength of 0.616 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Göztepe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Bodrum FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Bodrum FK games / 21 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodrum FK 36% | Draw 31% | Göztepe 34%. Fair-value odds: Bodrum FK 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Göztepe 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodrum FK at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Göztepe (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodrum FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Bodrum FK 30% | Göztepe 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodrum FK vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 10 Feb 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodrum FK 36% | Draw 31% | Göztepe 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Bodrum FK 1.25 / Göztepe 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Bodrum FK attack 0.616 / def 0.906 | Göztepe attack 1.080 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.679 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Bodrum FK (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Bodrum FK xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Göztepe xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodrum FK vs Göztepe kick off?
Bodrum FK vs Göztepe kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 10 February 2025 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Bodrum FK vs Göztepe?
Bodrum FK 0 - 0 Göztepe.
Where is Bodrum FK vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What competition is Bodrum FK vs Göztepe part of?
Bodrum FK vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Bodrum FK vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Bodrum FK a 36% chance of winning, Göztepe a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bodrum FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodrum FK vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bodrum FK and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Bodrum FK vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Göztepe?
Record (1 meetings): Bodrum FK 0W | Draws 0 | Göztepe 1W.
What form are Bodrum FK and Göztepe in?
Bodrum FK (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Göztepe (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bodrum FK's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against Göztepe's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Bodrum FK's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodrum FK Win
36%
2.80
31%
3.27
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Bodrum FK xG
Total xG
2.47
1.21
Göztepe xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
29%
3.51
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.3 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodrum FK vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Bodrum FK and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Bodrum FK and 1.21 for Göztepe, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodrum FK vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 21 outings, Bodrum FK have picked up 0.76 PPG on a 4W 4D 13L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bodrum FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Göztepe's form line: 10W 4D 7L from 21 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Göztepe are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bodrum FK.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bodrum FK have posted 1.10 PPG from 10 outings (3W 2D 5L).
On the road, Göztepe have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Göztepe's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodrum FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bodrum FK are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.90 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodrum FK
Blended
Göztepe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodrum FK and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Bodrum FK have gone 4W 4D 13L in their last 21 games (0.76 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 10W 4D 7L in their last 21 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodrum FK at home or Göztepe away?
Bodrum FK's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodrum FK at home: 1.10 PPG; Göztepe away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Bodrum FK or Göztepe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodrum FK have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Göztepe in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bodrum FK
1
Draws
1
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Göztepe?
From 2 meetings on record, Bodrum FK have won 0, Göztepe have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodrum FK and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2025, when Bodrum FK 0-0 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Bodrum FK and Göztepe?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bodrum FK tend to start slowly — only 30% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodrum FK 30%, Göztepe 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Bodrum FK) and 60% (Göztepe).
On the defensive side: Bodrum FK have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodrum FK home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodrum FK play Göztepe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 30% of Bodrum FK's games and 80% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodrum FK vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Bodrum FK's recent games and 60% of Göztepe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bodrum FK and Göztepe tend to score early?
Bodrum FK have had a goal before half-time in 30% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bodrum FK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, as Bodrum FK and Göztepe drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodrum FK 1.25 xG and Göztepe 1.21 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bodrum FK fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Göztepe landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodrum FK attack 0.62 / defence 0.91 against Göztepe attack 1.08 / defence 1.21, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodrum FK 36% | Draw 31% | Göztepe 34%, with Bodrum FK to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodrum FK 33%, Göztepe 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodrum FK's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Göztepe's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.