Beşiktaş 0-0 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fenerbahçe at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vodafone Park plays host to Beşiktaş versus Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 2 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beşiktaş have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beşiktaş have posted 4W 4D 2L at Vodafone Park — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fenerbahçe (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Fenerbahçe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fenerbahçe's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Beşiktaş, 2.10 for Fenerbahçe — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Beşiktaş 0W, Fenerbahçe 0W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beşiktaş 64% and Fenerbahçe 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 54% | Fenerbahçe 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.31 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.173 / defence 0.887 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.492 / defence 0.797. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.258. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.797 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.492 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Beşiktaş games / 44 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 30% | Draw 24% | Fenerbahçe 46%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Fenerbahçe 2.17. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 70% | Fenerbahçe 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Vodafone Park • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 30% | Draw 24% | Fenerbahçe 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Beşiktaş 1.31 / Fenerbahçe 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.173 / def 0.887 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.492 / def 0.797 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Fenerbahçe xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Vodafone Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe?
Beşiktaş 0 - 0 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Vodafone Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 30% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe?
Record (2 meetings): Beşiktaş 0W | Draws 2 | Fenerbahçe 0W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (1.17) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.49x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
30%
3.30
24%
4.17
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.98
1.66
Fenerbahçe xG
3.30
30%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
19%
5.28
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
6%
17.43
12%
8.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.66 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 18W 16D 10L from 44 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 25W 11D 8L across 44 games — 1.95 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Beşiktaş against 1.95 for Fenerbahçe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 11W 6D 4L from 21 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 11W 5D 5L across 21 trips, a 1.81 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.11 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Early Season
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 18W 16D 10L in their last 44 games (1.59 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 25W 11D 8L in their last 44 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.86 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Fenerbahçe go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
4
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 3, Fenerbahçe have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Fenerbahçe 1-0 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 62%, Fenerbahçe 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Beşiktaş) and 57% (Fenerbahçe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Beşiktaş's games and 62% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Beşiktaş's matches and 57% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Beşiktaş's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe finished level at 0-0 at Vodafone Park, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.31 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.66 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Beşiktaş fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Fenerbahçe landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.17 / defence 0.89 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.49 / defence 0.80, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 30% | Draw 24% | Fenerbahçe 46%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 54%, Fenerbahçe 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.59 PPG, Fenerbahçe 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.