Beşiktaş 3-3 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vodafone Park plays host to Beşiktaş versus Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Tuesday 21 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beşiktaş have collected 2.60 PPG across 5 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 1D 0L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets from 5 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beşiktaş have posted 3W 0D 0L at Vodafone Park — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 3 home games (100%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vodafone Park.
Adana Demirspor (all games): 1W 2D 2L across 5 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Adana Demirspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Beşiktaş's 2.60 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Adana Demirspor's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 80% of the time.
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 20% versus Adana Demirspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 60% | Adana Demirspor 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.94 xG and Adana Demirspor 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.221 / defence 0.804 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.731 / defence 1.442. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.072. Adana Demirspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.442 — this is suppressing Beşiktaş's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Beşiktaş games / 5 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 69% | Draw 20% | Adana Demirspor 11%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.45 | Draw 5.00 | Adana Demirspor 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (69%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 0% | Adana Demirspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Vodafone Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 69% | Draw 20% | Adana Demirspor 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 40% | xG Beşiktaş 1.94 / Adana Demirspor 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.221 / def 0.804 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.731 / def 1.442 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Adana Demirspor xG
40%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at Vodafone Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor?
Beşiktaş 3 - 3 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Vodafone Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 69% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 11% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-1D-0L in 5 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Adana Demirspor's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (0.73x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.63.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 1-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
69%
1.46
20%
4.93
11%
8.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.57
0.63
Adana Demirspor xG
1.46
69%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
8.96
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
37%
2.74
2%
62.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 9.3 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.4 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.63 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beşiktaş come into this having played 5 games, going 4W 1D 0L for 2.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Adana Demirspor sit at 1.00 PPG from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.60 PPG clear of Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Adana Demirspor in 60%.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 80% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Early Season
Adana Demirspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 games (2.60 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
Have Beşiktaş or Adana Demirspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 80% of their recent games, Adana Demirspor in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 1-4 on 21 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
2
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 3, Adana Demirspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Beşiktaş 4-1 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 20%, Adana Demirspor 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Beşiktaş) and 40% (Adana Demirspor).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches; Adana Demirspor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Adana Demirspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 60% of Adana Demirspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 40% of Adana Demirspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor finished level at 3-3 at Vodafone Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.94 xG and Adana Demirspor 0.63 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Beşiktaş beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Adana Demirspor outscored their 0.63 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.22 / defence 0.80 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.73 / defence 1.44, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 69% | Draw 20% | Adana Demirspor 11%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 60%, Adana Demirspor 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 80% of the time, and conceded here.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Beşiktaş scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Adana Demirspor scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.