Başakşehir 3-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu plays host to Başakşehir versus Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Tuesday 6 June 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Başakşehir (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Başakşehir's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Trabzonspor have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Trabzonspor's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Başakşehir against 1.30 for Trabzonspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Başakşehir lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2023, ended 0–1 with Trabzonspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Başakşehir — key trading statistics (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 47% versus Trabzonspor 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 47% | Trabzonspor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 2.19 xG and Trabzonspor 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.001 / defence 0.777 | Trabzonspor attack 0.985 / defence 1.354. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.445. Trabzonspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.354 — this is suppressing Başakşehir's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Başakşehir's defence rating of 0.777 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 73 Başakşehir games / 72 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 62% | Draw 20% | Trabzonspor 18%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | Trabzonspor 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 30% | Trabzonspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 Jun 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 62% | Draw 20% | Trabzonspor 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 59% | xG Başakşehir 2.19 / Trabzonspor 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.001 / def 0.777 | Trabzonspor attack 0.985 / def 1.354 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Trabzonspor xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 6 June 2023 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor?
Başakşehir 3 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 62% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Başakşehir and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Trabzonspor?
Record (3 meetings): Başakşehir 1W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 1W.
What form are Başakşehir and Trabzonspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Başakşehir's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Trabzonspor's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.19. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (0.98x) against Başakşehir's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 73/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
62%
1.61
20%
5.05
18%
5.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.30
1.11
Trabzonspor xG
1.61
62%
Home win
5.05
20%
Draw
5.50
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
11%
8.94
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
2%
49.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.11 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Başakşehir come into this having played 72 games, going 36W 16D 20L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, Trabzonspor sit at 1.88 PPG from 72 outings (39W 18D 15L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for Başakşehir against 1.88 for Trabzonspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Başakşehir's home form reads 23W 4D 8L across 35 games on their own ground, a 2.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Trabzonspor have taken 1.49 points per game from 35 outings (15W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Başakşehir are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.79 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor in 62%.
Last 72 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 36W 16D 20L in their last 72 games (1.72 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 39W 18D 15L in their last 72 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Trabzonspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 2.09 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.49 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won 0-3 on 15 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
3
Draws
5
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Trabzonspor 1-1 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 37%, Trabzonspor 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Başakşehir) and 66% (Trabzonspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Trabzonspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 71% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 51% of Başakşehir's matches and 66% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Başakşehir and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Trabzonspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Trabzonspor 3-1 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 2.19 xG and Trabzonspor 1.11 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Başakşehir beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.00 / defence 0.78 against Trabzonspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.35, drawn from 73/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 62% | Draw 20% | Trabzonspor 18%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 47%, Trabzonspor 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.72 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.