Başakşehir 4-0 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kasımpaşa make the trip to Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium to face Başakşehir in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Friday 24 April 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Başakşehir's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Başakşehir have posted 5W 3D 2L at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kasımpaşa have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Kasımpaşa away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Başakşehir against 1.50 for Kasımpaşa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Başakşehir register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Kasımpaşa in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across 8 previous meetings, Başakşehir are the stronger side on paper — 7 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.2 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 3–1 with Başakşehir winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Başakşehir and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 4.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Başakşehir half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 56% versus Kasımpaşa 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 58% | Kasımpaşa 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.88 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.203 / defence 0.949 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.057 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.183. Data: 66 Başakşehir games / 66 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 51% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 21%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Kasımpaşa 4.76. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Başakşehir if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 70% | Kasımpaşa 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 Apr 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 51% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Başakşehir 1.88 / Kasımpaşa 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.203 / def 0.949 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.057 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Kasımpaşa xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 24 April 2026 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Başakşehir 4 - 0 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 51% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa?
Record (8 meetings): Başakşehir 7W | Draws 1 | Kasımpaşa 0W.
What form are Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 1.20x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (1.06x) against Başakşehir's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
51%
1.95
27%
3.64
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.07
1.19
Kasımpaşa xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
15%
6.58
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
3%
30.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.4 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.19 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 66 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 29W 15D 22L record — L-D-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 18W 24D 24L from 66 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Başakşehir against 1.18 for Kasımpaşa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 1.67 PPG from 33 outings (15W 10D 8L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 9W 12D 12L from 33 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Başakşehir are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.38 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 62%.
Last 66 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Current Season
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 29W 15D 22L in their last 66 games (1.55 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 18W 24D 24L in their last 66 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.67 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Başakşehir won 4-0 on 8 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Başakşehir
2
Draws
0
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 8, Kasımpaşa have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Başakşehir 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 61%, Kasımpaşa 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Başakşehir and 64% for Kasımpaşa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Başakşehir's games and 64% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Başakşehir's matches and 64% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Başakşehir run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Kasımpaşa 4-0 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.88 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.19 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Başakşehir beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kasımpaşa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.20 / defence 0.95 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.06 / defence 1.11, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 51% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 21%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 58%, Kasımpaşa 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.55 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.