Başakşehir 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 18 as Başakşehir welcome Fatih Karagümrük to Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium this season.
Fatih Karagümrük — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük away from home this season: 1W 1D 6L from 8 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Başakşehir are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Başakşehir, 3 for Fatih Karagümrük and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2025, ended 2–0 with Başakşehir winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 59% versus Fatih Karagümrük 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 47% | Fatih Karagümrük 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 2.21 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.266 / defence 0.994 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.655 / defence 1.304. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.291. Başakşehir carry an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.304 — this is suppressing Başakşehir's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Başakşehir games / 17 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 66% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 10%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.52 | Draw 4.35 | Fatih Karagümrük 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (66%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Fatih Karagümrük lead the H2H ledger, but Başakşehir carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 80% | Fatih Karagümrük 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 66% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 53% | xG Başakşehir 2.21 / Fatih Karagümrük 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.266 / def 0.994 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.655 / def 1.304 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Fatih Karagümrük xG
53%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Başakşehir 2 - 1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 66% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 10% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (7 meetings): Başakşehir 1W | Draws 3 | Fatih Karagümrük 3W.
What form are Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (1.27) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 2.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fatih Karagümrük's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
66%
1.51
23%
4.27
10%
9.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.05
0.84
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
9.62
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
11%
9.15
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
1%
88.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.84 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 6W 5D 6L from 17 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 12L across 17 games — 0.53 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Başakşehir by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fatih Karagümrük heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 2W 4D 2L from 8 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record stands at 1W 1D 6L across 8 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Başakşehir are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 0.82 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 6W 5D 6L in their last 17 games (1.35 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 2W 3D 12L in their last 17 (0.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.25 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 6%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Başakşehir have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Fatih Karagümrük specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
3
Draws
3
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Başakşehir 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 75%, Fatih Karagümrük 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Başakşehir) and 62% (Fatih Karagümrük).
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Fatih Karagümrük?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Başakşehir's games and 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Başakşehir's recent games and 62% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Fatih Karagümrük 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 2.21 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.84 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.27 / defence 0.99 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.66 / defence 1.30, drawn from 53/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 66% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 10%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 47%, Fatih Karagümrük 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.53. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.