Başakşehir 0-0 Altay – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Altay encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu plays host to Başakşehir versus Altay in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Friday 26 November 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Başakşehir (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Başakşehir have posted 5W 0D 2L at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu — 2.14 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game.
Altay have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Altay, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Altay's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 4L across 6 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Başakşehir's favour (2.10 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Başakşehir — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Altay — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Başakşehir 62% and Altay 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Başakşehir 69% | Altay 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.81 xG and Altay 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.108 / defence 1.057 | Altay attack 0.878 / defence 1.377. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.116. Altay bring a strong defensive rating of 1.377 — this is suppressing Başakşehir's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Başakşehir games / 13 Altay games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 55% | Draw 23% | Altay 22%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Altay 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 43% | Altay 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Altay | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 26 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 55% | Draw 23% | Altay 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Başakşehir 1.81 / Altay 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.108 / def 1.057 | Altay attack 0.878 / def 1.377 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Altay xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Altay kick off?
Başakşehir vs Altay kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 26 November 2021 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Altay?
Başakşehir 0 - 0 Altay.
Where is Başakşehir vs Altay being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Altay part of?
Başakşehir vs Altay is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Altay?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 55% chance of winning, Altay a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Altay?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Başakşehir and Altay will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Altay have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Altay?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Başakşehir and Altay in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Altay (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 1.11x the league average against Altay's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Altay's attack (0.88x) against Başakşehir's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
55%
1.80
23%
4.35
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.85
1.04
Altay xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
16%
6.11
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
4%
28.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.9 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Altay?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Altay expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.04 for Altay, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Altay?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 7W 0D 6L from 13 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Altay, meanwhile, have gone 5W 1D 7L across 13 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Altay is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Başakşehir against 1.23 for Altay. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 5W 0D 1L from 6 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Başakşehir are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Altay's away record stands at 2W 0D 4L across 6 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Başakşehir are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Altay are on 1.38 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Başakşehir have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Altay in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Altay
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Altay in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 7W 0D 6L in their last 13 games (1.62 PPG), while Altay have gone 5W 1D 7L in their last 13 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Altay away?
Başakşehir's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 2.50 PPG; Altay away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Başakşehir
2
Draws
0
Altay
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Altay?
From 2 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 0, Altay have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Altay last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2022, when Altay 1-1 Başakşehir.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Altay see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Başakşehir, 83% for Altay — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Başakşehir and 83% for Altay. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Altay away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Altay?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Başakşehir's games and 83% of Altay's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Başakşehir vs Altay usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Başakşehir's matches and 83% of Altay's.
Do Başakşehir and Altay tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Altay in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Başakşehir's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, as Başakşehir and Altay drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.81 xG and Altay 1.04 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Başakşehir fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Altay landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.11 / defence 1.06 against Altay attack 0.88 / defence 1.38, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 55% | Draw 23% | Altay 22%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 69%, Altay 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Altay's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.62 PPG, Altay 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Altay (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.