Antalyaspor 1-1 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Antalyaspor and Kayserispor meet at Corendon Airlines Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 September 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Antalyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antalyaspor have posted 6W 2D 2L at Corendon Airlines Park — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.
Kayserispor (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Kayserispor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Kayserispor have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Antalyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Kayserispor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Antalyaspor 2W, Kayserispor 3W, 3D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2025, ended 1–3 with Kayserispor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Kayserispor — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 55% versus Kayserispor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 58% | Kayserispor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.36 xG and Kayserispor 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.987 / defence 1.065 | Kayserispor attack 0.936 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.205. Data: 41 Antalyaspor games / 40 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 40% | Draw 28% | Kayserispor 32%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Kayserispor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antalyaspor at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 60% | Kayserispor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Sep 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 40% | Draw 28% | Kayserispor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Antalyaspor 1.36 / Kayserispor 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.987 / def 1.065 | Kayserispor attack 0.936 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Kayserispor xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 20 September 2025 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Antalyaspor 1 - 1 Kayserispor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 40% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Antalyaspor and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Kayserispor?
Record (8 meetings): Antalyaspor 2W | Draws 3 | Kayserispor 3W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Kayserispor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Kayserispor (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Antalyaspor's attack at 0.99x the league average against Kayserispor's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kayserispor's attack (0.94x) against Antalyaspor's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
40%
2.51
28%
3.59
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.56
1.20
Kayserispor xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
12%
8.34
8%
12.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.20 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 15W 7D 18L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Antalyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kayserispor's form line: 11W 15D 14L from 40 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Kayserispor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.20 for Kayserispor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.89 PPG from 19 outings (11W 3D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Kayserispor have gone 3W 8D 8L from 19 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Early Season
Kayserispor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 15W 7D 18L in their last 40 games (1.30 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 11W 15D 14L in their last 40 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Kayserispor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.89 PPG; Kayserispor away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antalyaspor won 4-0 on 11 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kayserispor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
4
Draws
4
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Kayserispor?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Kayserispor have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Kayserispor 1-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Kayserispor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antalyaspor see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 63%, Kayserispor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Antalyaspor) and 42% (Kayserispor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor have failed to score in 26% of games; Kayserispor in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Kayserispor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Antalyaspor's games and 58% of Kayserispor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 42% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antalyaspor and Kayserispor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 6, as Antalyaspor and Kayserispor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.36 xG and Kayserispor 1.20 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.99 / defence 1.06 against Kayserispor attack 0.94 / defence 1.05, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 40% | Draw 28% | Kayserispor 32%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 58%, Kayserispor 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Kayserispor's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.30 PPG, Kayserispor 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.