Antalyaspor 4-2 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Corendon Airlines Park plays host to Antalyaspor versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 6 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antalyaspor's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Corendon Airlines Park this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Antalyaspor 1W, Fatih Karagümrük 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2022, ended 3–0 with Antalyaspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 55% versus Fatih Karagümrük 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 51% | Fatih Karagümrük 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.66 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.015 / defence 1.062 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.170 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.332. Data: 49 Antalyaspor games / 49 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 39% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 38%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.56 | Draw 4.35 | Fatih Karagümrük 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 70% | Fatih Karagümrük 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 39% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Antalyaspor 1.66 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 1.015 / def 1.062 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.170 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Fatih Karagümrük xG
66%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Antalyaspor 4 - 2 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 39% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 38% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (2 meetings): Antalyaspor 1W | Draws 1 | Fatih Karagümrük 0W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Fatih Karagümrük's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (1.17x) against Antalyaspor's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
39%
2.59
23%
4.35
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
3.31
1.66
Fatih Karagümrük xG
2.59
39%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
7%
13.58
7%
13.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.66 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Antalyaspor's recent record stands at 20W 12D 17L from 49 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 18L across 49 games — 1.41 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.41 for Fatih Karagümrük. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Antalyaspor have managed 12W 6D 6L from 24 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record stands at 7W 6D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.35 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 20W 12D 17L in their last 49 games (1.47 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 19W 12D 18L in their last 49 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.75 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Fatih Karagümrük go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antalyaspor won 3-0 on 13 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Antalyaspor
1
Draws
3
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 4, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 62%, Fatih Karagümrük 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Antalyaspor) and 58% (Fatih Karagümrük). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Antalyaspor's games and 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Antalyaspor's matches and 58% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antalyaspor cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Fatih Karagümrük.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 4-2 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.66 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.66 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Antalyaspor beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.01 / defence 1.06 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.17 / defence 1.11, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 39% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 38%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 51%, Fatih Karagümrük 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.47 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.