Ankaragücü 1-1 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Adana Demirspor at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Adana Demirspor travel to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı to take on Ankaragücü in Süper Lig (matchday 2). The game is scheduled for Monday 21 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ankaragücü stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Ankaragücü have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Adana Demirspor — last 10 games: 8W 0D 2L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Adana Demirspor have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Adana Demirspor are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Ankaragücü's games and 70% of Adana Demirspor's (from Ankaragücü's last 10 home games and Adana Demirspor's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Ankaragücü, 2 for Adana Demirspor and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 7 Jun 2023, ended Ankaragücü 1–2 Adana Demirspor — a Adana Demirspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ankaragücü in-play tendencies (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Adana Demirspor in-play tendencies (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ankaragücü 62% and Adana Demirspor 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ankaragücü 57% | Adana Demirspor 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ankaragücü 1.36 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ankaragücü attack 0.996 / defence 1.083 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.097 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.346. Data: built from Ankaragücü's last 37 games and Adana Demirspor's last 37. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ankaragücü 30% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 40%. Fair-value odds: Ankaragücü 3.36 | Draw 3.34 | Adana Demirspor 2.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.36 / 1.60) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Adana Demirspor as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ankaragücü's last 10 home games and Adana Demirspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ankaragücü 60% (last 10 home games) | Adana Demirspor 70% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Ankaragücü 37 games, Adana Demirspor 37) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 2 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Monday 21 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ankaragücü 30% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Ankaragücü 1.36 / Adana Demirspor 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Ankaragücü attack 0.996 / def 1.083 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.097 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Ankaragücü xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Adana Demirspor xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor FAQs
What time does Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 21 August 2023 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor?
Ankaragücü 1 - 1 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 2) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Ankaragücü a 30% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Ankaragücü and Adana Demirspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ankaragücü's attack rating (1.00) and Adana Demirspor's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Adana Demirspor's attack versus Ankaragücü's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ankaragücü's last 37 games and Adana Demirspor's last 37, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
30%
3.36
30%
3.34
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Ankaragücü xG
Total xG
2.96
1.60
Adana Demirspor xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
6%
16.60
10%
9.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.3 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Ankaragücü and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Ankaragücü and 1.60 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ankaragücü come into this having played 37 games, going 12W 6D 19L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Adana Demirspor sit at 1.95 PPG from 37 outings (21W 9D 7L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Adana Demirspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Ankaragücü — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ankaragücü's home form reads 6W 4D 8L across their last 18 home games, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Adana Demirspor have taken 1.61 points per game from their last 18 away games (8W 5D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Ankaragücü are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 2.11 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Adana Demirspor in 65%.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ankaragücü
Early Season
Adana Demirspor
Early Season
Ankaragücü (Home) vs Adana Demirspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ankaragücü
Early Season
Adana Demirspor
Early Season
❓ Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor Form FAQs
What form are Ankaragücü and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Ankaragücü have gone 12W 6D 19L in their last 37 games (1.14 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 21W 9D 7L in their last 37 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ankaragücü at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Adana Demirspor's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ankaragücü at home: 1.22 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2023. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 20 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Ankaragücü's record when hosting Adana Demirspor specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ankaragücü
2
Draws
2
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Adana Demirspor?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Ankaragücü have won 0, Adana Demirspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ankaragücü and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 January 2024: Adana Demirspor 1-1 Ankaragücü.
Who has won more matches between Ankaragücü and Adana Demirspor?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ankaragücü are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ankaragücü at 67%, Adana Demirspor at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Ankaragücü and 61% for Adana Demirspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ankaragücü have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ankaragücü home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ankaragücü and Adana Demirspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ankaragücü's games and 72% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ankaragücü and Adana Demirspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Ankaragücü's matches and 61% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Ankaragücü and Adana Demirspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Ankaragücü's recent matches and 72% of Adana Demirspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ankaragücü and Adana Demirspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ankaragücü and Adana Demirspor finished level at 1-1 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ankaragücü 1.36 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.60 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ankaragücü attack 1.00 / defence 1.08 against Adana Demirspor attack 1.10 / defence 0.98, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ankaragücü 30% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 40%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ankaragücü 57%, Adana Demirspor 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ankaragücü's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Adana Demirspor arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.