Amed vs Konyaspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Amed at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amed vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Diyarbakir Stadium plays host to Amed versus Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 18 October 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Amed have collected 2.00 PPG across 3 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 0D 1L. Last five: W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Amed have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Amed's favour (2.00 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Amed — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amed 33% versus Konyaspor 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Amed 67% | Konyaspor 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amed 2.05 xG and Konyaspor 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amed attack 1.122 / defence 0.962 | Konyaspor attack 1.096 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Konyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.250 — this is suppressing Amed's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Amed games / 37 Konyaspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Amed 55% | Draw 21% | Konyaspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Amed 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | Konyaspor 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Amed (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amed are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Amed 33% | Konyaspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amed vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Diyarbakir Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amed 55% | Draw 21% | Konyaspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 63% | xG Amed 2.05 / Konyaspor 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Amed attack 1.122 / def 0.962 | Konyaspor attack 1.096 / def 1.250 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Amed (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Amed xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Konyaspor xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amed vs Konyaspor kick off?
Amed vs Konyaspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Diyarbakir Stadium.
Where is Amed vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Diyarbakir Stadium.
What competition is Amed vs Konyaspor part of?
Amed vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Amed vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Amed a 55% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Amed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amed vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Amed and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Amed vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Konyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amed and Konyaspor in?
Amed (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W. Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Amed's attack at 1.12x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (1.10x) against Amed's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
The sample (3/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Amed Win
55%
1.82
21%
4.70
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Amed xG
Total xG
3.33
1.28
Konyaspor xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
13%
7.76
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
3%
32.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amed vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Amed and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Amed and 1.28 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Amed vs Konyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Amed's recent record stands at 2W 0D 1L from 3 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Amed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Konyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 3L across 3 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Amed by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Konyaspor heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Amed are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.00 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amed
Early Season
Konyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amed and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Amed have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 (0.00 PPG).
Have Amed or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amed have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amed 33%, Konyaspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Amed and 67% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Amed keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Amed have failed to score in 33% of games; Konyaspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amed home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amed play Konyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Amed's recent matches and 67% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amed vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Amed's matches and 67% of Konyaspor's.
Do Amed and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Amed have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.