Adana Demirspor 0-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Trabzonspor (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Adana Demirspor face Trabzonspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Trabzonspor travel to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to take on Adana Demirspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 April 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Adana Demirspor stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana Demirspor have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Trabzonspor's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Trabzonspor's 1.40 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Adana Demirspor's 0.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Trabzonspor, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Adana Demirspor.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2024, ended 0–5 with Trabzonspor winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Trabzonspor have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Adana Demirspor in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 58% versus Trabzonspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 60% | Trabzonspor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.12 xG and Trabzonspor 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.681 / defence 1.420 | Trabzonspor attack 1.009 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.173. Adana Demirspor's attack strength of 0.681 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 67 Adana Demirspor games / 67 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 25% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 50%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Trabzonspor 2.00. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 40% | Trabzonspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 25% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.12 / Trabzonspor 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 0.681 / def 1.420 | Trabzonspor attack 1.009 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Trabzonspor xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Adana Demirspor 0 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 25% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor?
Record (7 meetings): Adana Demirspor 2W | Draws 0 | Trabzonspor 5W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Adana Demirspor's attack at 0.68x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
25%
4.00
25%
4.02
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.80
1.68
Trabzonspor xG
4.00
25%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
19%
5.37
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
5%
21.48
16%
6.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.68 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, Adana Demirspor have picked up 0.81 PPG on a 12W 18D 37L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Trabzonspor's form line: 31W 13D 23L from 67 games, 1.58 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Adana Demirspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Adana Demirspor have posted 1.09 PPG from 33 outings (10W 6D 17L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 10W 8D 15L from 33 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.72 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 12W 18D 37L in their last 67 games (0.81 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 31W 13D 23L in their last 67 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.09 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Adana Demirspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Adana Demirspor have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Trabzonspor have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2024, when Trabzonspor won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Adana Demirspor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Adana Demirspor
0
Draws
6
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Adana Demirspor 0-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 52%, Trabzonspor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Adana Demirspor) and 54% (Trabzonspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor have failed to score in 33% of games; Trabzonspor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Trabzonspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 58% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Adana Demirspor's matches and 54% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Adana Demirspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Adana Demirspor 0-1 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.12 xG and Trabzonspor 1.68 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Adana Demirspor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.68 / defence 1.42 against Trabzonspor attack 1.01 / defence 1.03, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 25% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 50%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 60%, Trabzonspor 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.81. Form held, and they took the win. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.