Adana Demirspor 2-1 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Başakşehir travel to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to take on Adana Demirspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 March 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Adana Demirspor — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana Demirspor have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yeni Adana Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Başakşehir have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Adana Demirspor 1.50 PPG, Başakşehir 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Adana Demirspor, 1 for Başakşehir and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Başakşehir winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Adana Demirspor trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Başakşehir trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 52% versus Başakşehir 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 45% | Başakşehir 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.01 xG and Başakşehir 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.940 / defence 1.006 | Başakşehir attack 0.895 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.239. Data: 29 Adana Demirspor games / 29 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 32% | Draw 30% | Başakşehir 38%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Başakşehir 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Başakşehir as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 30% | Başakşehir 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 32% | Draw 30% | Başakşehir 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.01 / Başakşehir 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 0.940 / def 1.006 | Başakşehir attack 0.895 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Başakşehir xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir?
Adana Demirspor 2 - 1 Başakşehir.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 32% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir?
Record (1 meetings): Adana Demirspor 0W | Draws 0 | Başakşehir 1W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Adana Demirspor's attack rating (0.94) and Başakşehir's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
32%
3.08
30%
3.37
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.12
1.12
Başakşehir xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
14%
7.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.12 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, Adana Demirspor have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 12W 9D 8L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Başakşehir's form line: 14W 5D 10L from 29 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Adana Demirspor on 1.55 PPG, Başakşehir on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Adana Demirspor have posted 1.64 PPG from 14 outings (6W 5D 3L).
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 5W 4D 5L from 14 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.41 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
Başakşehir
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 12W 9D 8L in their last 29 games (1.55 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 14W 5D 10L in their last 29 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.64 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 May 2024, when Başakşehir won 2-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Adana Demirspor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Adana Demirspor
1
Draws
5
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 2, Başakşehir have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2025, when Başakşehir 2-3 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Adana Demirspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 36%, Başakşehir 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Adana Demirspor) and 50% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Adana Demirspor have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 57% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Adana Demirspor's recent games and 50% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Adana Demirspor defy the odds to beat Başakşehir 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Başakşehir 2-1 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.01 xG and Başakşehir 1.12 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Adana Demirspor beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.01 against Başakşehir attack 0.90 / defence 0.88, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 32% | Draw 30% | Başakşehir 38%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Adana Demirspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 45%, Başakşehir 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Adana Demirspor 1.55 PPG, Başakşehir 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Adana Demirspor win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.