Adana Demirspor 2-1 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Adana Demirspor at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yeni Adana Stadyumu plays host to Adana Demirspor versus Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 24 December 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Adana Demirspor have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Adana Demirspor at Yeni Adana Stadyumu this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yeni Adana Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Adana Demirspor are significantly better at Yeni Adana Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Antalyaspor (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Antalyaspor are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Across 4 previous meetings, Adana Demirspor are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 2–0 with Adana Demirspor winning.
The historical record gives Adana Demirspor a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 64% versus Antalyaspor 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 64% | Antalyaspor 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.91 xG and Antalyaspor 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.237 / defence 0.852 | Antalyaspor attack 1.199 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.275. Data: 52 Adana Demirspor games / 52 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 51% | Draw 24% | Antalyaspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Antalyaspor 4.00. Adana Demirspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Adana Demirspor dominate the H2H record, yet Antalyaspor are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Adana Demirspor as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Antalyaspor (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Adana Demirspor 50% | Antalyaspor 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Dec 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 51% | Draw 24% | Antalyaspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.91 / Antalyaspor 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 1.237 / def 0.852 | Antalyaspor attack 1.199 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Antalyaspor xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 24 December 2023 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor?
Adana Demirspor 2 - 1 Antalyaspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 51% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor?
Record (4 meetings): Adana Demirspor 3W | Draws 1 | Antalyaspor 0W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Antalyaspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Adana Demirspor's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Antalyaspor's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (1.20x) against Adana Demirspor's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.24
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
3.21
1.30
Antalyaspor xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
4%
26.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.30 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Adana Demirspor come into this having played 52 games, going 26W 15D 11L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.25 PPG from 52 outings (17W 14D 21L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Adana Demirspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Adana Demirspor's home form reads 17W 5D 3L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.24 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Adana Demirspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 0.88 points per game from 25 outings (5W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Adana Demirspor are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.31 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 26W 15D 11L in their last 52 games (1.79 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 17W 14D 21L in their last 52 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 2.24 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Adana Demirspor or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Adana Demirspor have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Adana Demirspor won 0-3 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Adana Demirspor have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Adana Demirspor
2
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 4, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2025, when Adana Demirspor 1-1 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 52%, Antalyaspor 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Adana Demirspor) and 36% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 44% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Adana Demirspor's recent games and 36% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Adana Demirspor edge out Antalyaspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Antalyaspor 2-1 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.91 xG and Antalyaspor 1.30 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 1.24 / defence 0.85 against Antalyaspor attack 1.20 / defence 0.99, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 51% | Draw 24% | Antalyaspor 25%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 64%, Antalyaspor 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Adana Demirspor arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.