Uthai Thani 1-1 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Uthai Thani face Port FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Uthai Thani welcome Port FC to Uthai Thani Province Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 14). Kick-off is Saturday 23 November 2024 at 11:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Uthai Thani — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Uthai Thani have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Port FC have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Port FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Uthai Thani) versus 1.60 (Port FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Uthai Thani's last 10 home games and Port FC's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Uthai Thani, 1 for Port FC and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 6.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 9 Mar 2024, ended Uthai Thani 3–3 Port FC — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Uthai Thani in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Port FC in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Uthai Thani 55% and Port FC 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 55% | Port FC 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Uthai Thani surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Port FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 56% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.68 xG and Port FC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 1.057 / defence 0.977 | Port FC attack 1.175 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.786 / away 1.143. Data: built from Uthai Thani's last 43 games and Port FC's last 42.
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 44% | Draw 29% | Port FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 2.30 | Draw 3.45 | Port FC 3.64. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.68 / 1.31) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Uthai Thani are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Uthai Thani's last 10 home games and Port FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Uthai Thani 70% (last 10 home games) | Port FC 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 14 | Venue: Uthai Thani Province Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 44% | Draw 29% | Port FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Uthai Thani 1.68 / Port FC 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 1.057 / def 0.977 | Port FC attack 1.175 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.786 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Port FC xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Uthai Thani vs Port FC FAQs
What time does Uthai Thani vs Port FC kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Port FC kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Uthai Thani 1 - 1 Port FC.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Port FC part of?
Uthai Thani vs Port FC is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 14) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 44% chance of winning, Port FC a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Uthai Thani and Port FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Uthai Thani vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Uthai Thani's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Uthai Thani's last 43 games and Port FC's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
44%
2.30
29%
3.45
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.99
1.31
Port FC xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
19%
5.36
Win to Nil
12%
8.53
5%
19.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.1 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Uthai Thani vs Port FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.31 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Uthai Thani come into this having played 42 games, going 14W 11D 17L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Port FC sit at 1.88 PPG from 42 outings (22W 13D 7L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-L across their last five.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Uthai Thani's home form reads 7W 7D 4L across their last 18 home games, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Port FC have taken 1.67 points per game from their last 18 away games (7W 9D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.26 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC in 69%.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Blended
Port FC
Blended
Uthai Thani (Home) vs Port FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Uthai Thani
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Uthai Thani vs Port FC Form FAQs
What form are Uthai Thani and Port FC in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 14W 11D 17L in their last 42 games (1.26 PPG), while Port FC have gone 22W 13D 7L in their last 42 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Port FC away?
Port FC's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.56 PPG; Port FC away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Port FC have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Oct 2023, when Port FC won Uthai Thani 1-5 Port FC.
Uthai Thani's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Uthai Thani
3
Draws
3
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Uthai Thani vs Port FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Port FC?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Uthai Thani have won 0, Port FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Port FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: Uthai Thani 0-1 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Uthai Thani at 61%, Port FC at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Uthai Thani) and 61% (Port FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Uthai Thani vs Port FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Uthai Thani and Port FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Uthai Thani's games and 72% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Uthai Thani and Port FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 61% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Port FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Uthai Thani's recent matches and 89% of Port FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Uthai Thani and Port FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Regular Season - 14, as Uthai Thani and Port FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.68 xG and Port FC 1.31 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 1.06 / defence 0.98 against Port FC attack 1.18 / defence 0.89, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 44% | Draw 29% | Port FC 27%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 55%, Port FC 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (42 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Port FC's trading profile (42 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.