Uthai Thani 0-0 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Buriram United (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Uthai Thani face Buriram United.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Buriram United make the trip to Uthai Thani Province Stadium to face Uthai Thani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 March 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Uthai Thani (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Uthai Thani have posted 5W 3D 2L at Uthai Thani Province Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Uthai Thani are significantly better at Uthai Thani Province Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Buriram United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Buriram United have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Buriram United are 1.30 PPG clear of Uthai Thani in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (2.40 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Buriram United hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Buriram United winning.
It is worth noting that Buriram United have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Uthai Thani half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Buriram United half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 54% versus Buriram United 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 56% | Buriram United 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.13 xG and Buriram United 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.896 / defence 0.828 | Buriram United attack 1.588 / defence 0.777. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.206. Buriram United's defence strength of 0.777 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.588 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Uthai Thani games / 52 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 27% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 47%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Buriram United 2.13. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Buriram United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 50% | Buriram United 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Uthai Thani Province Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 27% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Uthai Thani 1.13 / Buriram United 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 0.896 / def 0.828 | Buriram United attack 1.588 / def 0.777 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Buriram United xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Buriram United kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Buriram United kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Buriram United?
Uthai Thani 0 - 0 Buriram United.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Buriram United part of?
Uthai Thani vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 27% chance of winning, Buriram United a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Uthai Thani and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Buriram United?
Record (3 meetings): Uthai Thani 0W | Draws 0 | Buriram United 3W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Buriram United in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Buriram United (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Uthai Thani's attack rating (0.90) and Buriram United's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Buriram United's attack (1.59x) against Uthai Thani's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
27%
3.75
26%
3.84
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.72
1.58
Buriram United xG
3.75
27%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
5%
18.29
15%
6.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.5 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.58 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Uthai Thani have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 17W 13D 22L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United's form line: 37W 12D 3L from 52 games, 2.37 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Buriram United are the form team by 1.14 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Uthai Thani.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Uthai Thani have posted 1.44 PPG from 25 outings (9W 9D 7L).
On the road, Buriram United have gone 17W 6D 2L from 25 away games — 2.28 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.71 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 17W 13D 22L in their last 52 games (1.23 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 37W 12D 3L in their last 52 (2.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.44 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.28 PPG.
Have Uthai Thani or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Uthai Thani have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Buriram United in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 9 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Buriram United have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 4-0 on 23 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Uthai Thani have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Buriram United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Uthai Thani
1
Draws
5
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Buriram United?
From 6 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 0, Buriram United have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 9 January 2026, when Uthai Thani 0-1 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 56%, Buriram United 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Uthai Thani) and 60% (Buriram United).
On the defensive side: Buriram United in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Buriram United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Uthai Thani's games and 60% of Buriram United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 60% of Buriram United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Buriram United tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Uthai Thani's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Uthai Thani and Buriram United finished level at 0-0 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.13 xG and Buriram United 1.58 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Uthai Thani fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Buriram United landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.90 / defence 0.83 against Buriram United attack 1.59 / defence 0.78, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 27% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 47%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 56%, Buriram United 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Buriram United's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.