Sukhothai FC 0-0 Bangkok United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Sukhothai FC take on Bangkok United.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Sukhothai FC welcome Bangkok United to Thalay Luang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 November 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Thalay Luang Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bangkok United — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bangkok United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bangkok United away from home this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bangkok United — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Bangkok United have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Sukhothai FC.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2025, ended 1–3 with Bangkok United winning.
It is worth noting that Bangkok United have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Bangkok United in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sukhothai FC 66% and Bangkok United 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 54% | Bangkok United 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.00 xG and Bangkok United 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 1.013 / defence 1.025 | Bangkok United attack 0.898 / defence 0.667. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.201. Bangkok United's defence strength of 0.667 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Sukhothai FC games / 42 Bangkok United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 29% | Draw 36% | Bangkok United 34%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 3.45 | Draw 2.78 | Bangkok United 2.94. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Sukhothai FC 90% | Bangkok United 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Thalay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 29% | Draw 36% | Bangkok United 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 46% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.00 / Bangkok United 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 1.013 / def 1.025 | Bangkok United attack 0.898 / def 0.667 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Bangkok United xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United?
Sukhothai FC 0 - 0 Bangkok United.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United being played?
The match is being played at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 29% chance of winning, Bangkok United a 34% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Bangkok United will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Bangkok United?
Record (6 meetings): Sukhothai FC 0W | Draws 2 | Bangkok United 4W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Bangkok United in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Bangkok United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 1.01x the league average against Bangkok United's defence at 0.67x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bangkok United's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.43
36%
2.74
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.11
1.11
Bangkok United xG
3.43
29%
Home win
2.74
36%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
10%
10.37
13%
7.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Bangkok United expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.11 for Bangkok United, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Sukhothai FC have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 12W 14D 15L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bangkok United's form line: 27W 9D 5L from 41 games, 2.20 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W. The sample for Bangkok United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bangkok United are the form team by 0.98 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sukhothai FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sukhothai FC have posted 1.85 PPG from 20 outings (11W 4D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bangkok United have gone 12W 5D 3L from 20 away games — 2.05 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Bangkok United are on 2.05 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Bangkok United in 61%.
Defensively: Bangkok United in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Bangkok United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Bangkok United in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 12W 14D 15L in their last 41 games (1.22 PPG), while Bangkok United have gone 27W 9D 5L in their last 41 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Bangkok United away?
Bangkok United's away record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.85 PPG; Bangkok United away: 2.05 PPG.
Have Sukhothai FC or Bangkok United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Bangkok United in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2023, when Bangkok United won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Bangkok United specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Sukhothai FC
3
Draws
5
Bangkok United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Bangkok United?
From 8 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 0, Bangkok United have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Bangkok United last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Bangkok United 2-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Bangkok United?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Bangkok United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 70%, Bangkok United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Sukhothai FC and 55% for Bangkok United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bangkok United in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Bangkok United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Bangkok United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Sukhothai FC's games and 50% of Bangkok United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 55% of Bangkok United's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Bangkok United tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Bangkok United in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sukhothai FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC and Bangkok United finished level at 0-0 at Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.00 xG and Bangkok United 1.11 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sukhothai FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Bangkok United landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.02 against Bangkok United attack 0.90 / defence 0.67, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 29% | Draw 36% | Bangkok United 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 54%, Bangkok United 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Bangkok United's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Bangkok United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.