Sisaket United 2-1 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sisaket United vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sisaket United host Chonburi FC at Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 October 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sisaket United — All Games: 1W 0D 2L from 3 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Sisaket United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chonburi FC have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sisaket United 1.00 PPG, Chonburi FC 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Sisaket United in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Sisaket United 33% | Chonburi FC 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sisaket United 33% | Chonburi FC 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sisaket United 1.09 xG and Chonburi FC 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sisaket United attack 0.727 / defence 1.113 | Chonburi FC attack 0.889 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.233. Sisaket United's attack strength of 0.727 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Sisaket United games / 33 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sisaket United 33% | Draw 28% | Chonburi FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Sisaket United 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Chonburi FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sisaket United 33% | Chonburi FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sisaket United vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sisaket United 33% | Draw 28% | Chonburi FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Sisaket United 1.09 / Chonburi FC 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Sisaket United attack 0.727 / def 1.113 | Chonburi FC attack 0.889 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Sisaket United xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Chonburi FC xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sisaket United vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Sisaket United vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium.
What was the final score in Sisaket United vs Chonburi FC?
Sisaket United 2 - 1 Chonburi FC.
Where is Sisaket United vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium.
What competition is Sisaket United vs Chonburi FC part of?
Sisaket United vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sisaket United vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Sisaket United a 33% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sisaket United vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sisaket United and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sisaket United vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sisaket United and Chonburi FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sisaket United and Chonburi FC in?
Sisaket United (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-W. Chonburi FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sisaket United's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Chonburi FC's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Sisaket United's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
33%
3.07
28%
3.51
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Sisaket United xG
Total xG
2.31
1.22
Chonburi FC xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
10%
10.40
13%
7.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sisaket United vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Sisaket United and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Sisaket United and 1.22 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Sisaket United vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 3 outings, Sisaket United have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 2L record — L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sisaket United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chonburi FC's form line: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sisaket United are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chonburi FC.
The Goals Picture
Sisaket United are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 3 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sisaket United
Early Season
Chonburi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sisaket United and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Sisaket United have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 (0.00 PPG).
Have Sisaket United or Chonburi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sisaket United have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Chonburi FC in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sisaket United and Chonburi FC runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Sisaket United
0
Draws
0
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sisaket United and Chonburi FC?
From 1 meetings on record, Sisaket United have won 1, Chonburi FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sisaket United and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Sisaket United 2-1 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Sisaket United and Chonburi FC?
Sisaket United have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sisaket United see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Sisaket United 33% BTTS, Chonburi FC 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Sisaket United and 33% for Chonburi FC.
On the defensive side: Sisaket United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sisaket United have failed to score in 33% of games; Chonburi FC in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sisaket United home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sisaket United play Chonburi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sisaket United's recent matches and 33% of Chonburi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sisaket United vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Sisaket United's recent games and 33% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sisaket United and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Sisaket United have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sisaket United defy the odds to beat Chonburi FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sisaket United beat Chonburi FC 2-1 at Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sisaket United 1.09 xG and Chonburi FC 1.22 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sisaket United beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sisaket United attack 0.73 / defence 1.11 against Chonburi FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.03, drawn from 3/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sisaket United 33% | Draw 28% | Chonburi FC 39%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Sisaket United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sisaket United 33%, Chonburi FC 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sisaket United's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sisaket United arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Sisaket United scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.