Ratchaburi 2-1 Suphanburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Suphanburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ratchaburi host Suphanburi at Mitr Phol Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 February 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Mitr Phol Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suphanburi stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Suphanburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suphanburi away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Ratchaburi) versus 1.50 (Suphanburi). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Ratchaburi have won 0, Suphanburi 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ratchaburi in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Suphanburi in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 45% versus Suphanburi 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 40% | Suphanburi 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.16 xG and Suphanburi 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.866 / defence 1.133 | Suphanburi attack 0.752 / defence 1.343. League average goals — home 1.000 / away 1.075. Suphanburi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.343 — this is suppressing Ratchaburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Ratchaburi games / 20 Suphanburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 41% | Draw 30% | Suphanburi 29%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Suphanburi 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Ratchaburi 50% | Suphanburi 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Suphanburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Mitr Phol Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 41% | Draw 30% | Suphanburi 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Ratchaburi 1.16 / Suphanburi 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.866 / def 1.133 | Suphanburi attack 0.752 / def 1.343 | league avg home 1.000 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Suphanburi xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Suphanburi kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Suphanburi kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Mitr Phol Stadium.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Suphanburi?
Ratchaburi 2 - 1 Suphanburi.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Suphanburi being played?
The match is being played at Mitr Phol Stadium.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Suphanburi part of?
Ratchaburi vs Suphanburi is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Suphanburi?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 41% chance of winning, Suphanburi a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Suphanburi?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Ratchaburi and Suphanburi will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Suphanburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Suphanburi?
Record (1 meetings): Ratchaburi 0W | Draws 1 | Suphanburi 0W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Suphanburi in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Suphanburi (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 0.87x the league average against Suphanburi's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Suphanburi's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
41%
2.41
30%
3.35
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.08
0.92
Suphanburi xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
9%
11.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 11.5 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Suphanburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Suphanburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.92 for Suphanburi, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Suphanburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 20 outings, Ratchaburi have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 5W 6D 9L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Suphanburi's form line: 6W 4D 10L from 20 games, 1.10 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Suphanburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ratchaburi on 1.05 PPG, Suphanburi on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ratchaburi have posted 1.40 PPG from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L).
On the road, Suphanburi have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Suphanburi are on 1.10 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Suphanburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Suphanburi in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 5W 6D 9L in their last 20 games (1.05 PPG), while Suphanburi have gone 6W 4D 10L in their last 20 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Suphanburi away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.40 PPG; Suphanburi away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Suphanburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Suphanburi in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ratchaburi and Suphanburi runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ratchaburi
1
Draws
0
Suphanburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Suphanburi?
From 2 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 1, Suphanburi have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Suphanburi last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2022, when Ratchaburi 2-1 Suphanburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Suphanburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Suphanburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 50%, Suphanburi 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Ratchaburi) and 60% (Suphanburi).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi have failed to score in 30% of games; Suphanburi in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Suphanburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Suphanburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ratchaburi's games and 60% of Suphanburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Suphanburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 60% of Suphanburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Suphanburi tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Suphanburi in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Suphanburi 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Suphanburi 2-1 at Mitr Phol Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.16 xG and Suphanburi 0.92 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Ratchaburi beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.87 / defence 1.13 against Suphanburi attack 0.75 / defence 1.34, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 41% | Draw 30% | Suphanburi 29%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 40%, Suphanburi 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Suphanburi's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.05 PPG, Suphanburi 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.