Ratchaburi 2-0 Rayong FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 78% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 9 as Ratchaburi welcome Rayong FC to Dragon Solar Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi's home record at Dragon Solar Park: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rayong FC stand at 1W 2D 5L from 8 Thai League 1 matches — 0.62 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 2.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.25 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rayong FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayong FC's away record: 1W 0D 3L from 4 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Ratchaburi carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.68 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.62. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Ratchaburi in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Rayong FC in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 50% versus Rayong FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 50% | Rayong FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 3.05 xG and Rayong FC 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.327 / defence 1.056 | Rayong FC attack 0.812 / defence 1.354. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.110. Ratchaburi carry an above-average attack strength of 1.327 — their λ of 3.05 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Rayong FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.354 — this is suppressing Ratchaburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Ratchaburi games / 8 Rayong FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 78% | Draw 15% | Rayong FC 7%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.28 | Draw 6.67 | Rayong FC 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (78%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 4.00. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.00 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (3.05 / 0.95) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 70% | Rayong FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 78% | Draw 15% | Rayong FC 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 60% | xG Ratchaburi 3.05 / Rayong FC 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.327 / def 1.056 | Rayong FC attack 0.812 / def 1.354 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.05
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Rayong FC xG
60%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC?
Ratchaburi 2 - 0 Rayong FC.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC part of?
Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 78% chance of winning, Rayong FC a 7% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Ratchaburi and Rayong FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Rayong FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ratchaburi and Rayong FC in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Rayong FC (all comps): 1W-2D-5L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 2.25 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ratchaburi's attack rating (1.33) and Rayong FC's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 3.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rayong FC's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.5%), 3-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
78%
1.29
15%
6.57
7%
14.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.05
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
4.00
0.95
Rayong FC xG
1.29
78%
Home win
6.57
15%
Draw
14.03
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
5%
21.03
Win to Nil
30%
3.34
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Rayong FC expected to score?
The model projects 3.05 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.95 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 4.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, Ratchaburi have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 2W 3D 3L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rayong FC's form line: 1W 2D 5L from 8 games, 0.62 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Rayong FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ratchaburi are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rayong FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ratchaburi have posted 2.00 PPG from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Ratchaburi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Rayong FC have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Rayong FC are on 0.75 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Rayong FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Rayong FC in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while Rayong FC have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Rayong FC away?
Ratchaburi's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 2.00 PPG; Rayong FC away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ratchaburi and Rayong FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ratchaburi have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2026, when Ratchaburi won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Rayong FC specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
0
Draws
0
Rayong FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Rayong FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 4, Rayong FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Rayong FC last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Ratchaburi 6-1 Rayong FC.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Rayong FC?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 75%, Rayong FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Ratchaburi and 75% for Rayong FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Rayong FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Rayong FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Ratchaburi's games and 50% of Rayong FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Ratchaburi's matches and 75% of Rayong FC's.
Do Ratchaburi and Rayong FC tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rayong FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ratchaburi cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rayong FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Rayong FC 2-0 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 3.05 xG and Rayong FC 0.95 xG, a combined 4.00. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ratchaburi fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Rayong FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.33 / defence 1.06 against Rayong FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.35, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 78% | Draw 15% | Rayong FC 7%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 78%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 50%, Rayong FC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Rayong FC's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.