Ratchaburi 2-0 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ratchaburi host Prachuap at Mitr Phol Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 November 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ratchaburi — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ratchaburi have posted 1W 0D 2L at Mitr Phol Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Prachuap stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Prachuap have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Ratchaburi) versus 0.90 (Prachuap). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ratchaburi register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Prachuap in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Ratchaburi trading profile (10 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Prachuap trading profile (10 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ratchaburi 60% and Prachuap 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 50% | Prachuap 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.36 xG and Prachuap 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.977 / defence 1.152 | Prachuap attack 0.743 / defence 1.349. League average goals — home 1.035 / away 1.319. Prachuap bring a strong defensive rating of 1.349 — this is suppressing Ratchaburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Ratchaburi games / 10 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 42% | Draw 27% | Prachuap 31%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Prachuap 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 67% | Prachuap 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Mitr Phol Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 42% | Draw 27% | Prachuap 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Ratchaburi 1.36 / Prachuap 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.977 / def 1.152 | Prachuap attack 0.743 / def 1.349 | league avg home 1.035 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Prachuap xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Prachuap kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Prachuap kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Mitr Phol Stadium.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Ratchaburi 2 - 0 Prachuap.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Mitr Phol Stadium.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Prachuap part of?
Ratchaburi vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 42% chance of winning, Prachuap a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ratchaburi and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Prachuap?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ratchaburi and Prachuap in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Prachuap (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 0.98x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
42%
2.37
27%
3.73
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.49
1.13
Prachuap xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
8%
12.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.13 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ratchaburi come into this having played 10 games, going 2W 3D 5L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Prachuap sit at 0.90 PPG from 10 outings (2W 3D 5L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ratchaburi on 0.90 PPG, Prachuap on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ratchaburi's home form reads 1W 0D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Prachuap have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ratchaburi have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Prachuap in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Prachuap away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.00 PPG; Prachuap away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Prachuap in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2022, when Ratchaburi won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
2
Draws
4
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Prachuap?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 4, Prachuap have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Ratchaburi 1-1 Prachuap.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Prachuap see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 67%, Prachuap 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Ratchaburi) and 33% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Prachuap in 33%; Prachuap in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Prachuap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 33% of Prachuap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 33% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Ratchaburi cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Prachuap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Prachuap 2-0 at Mitr Phol Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.36 xG and Prachuap 1.13 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Prachuap landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Prachuap attack 0.74 / defence 1.35, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 42% | Draw 27% | Prachuap 31%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 50%, Prachuap 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (10 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Prachuap's trading profile (10 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 0.90 PPG, Prachuap 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.