Ratchaburi 3-2 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ratchaburi and Muangthong United meet at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 February 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ratchaburi have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dragon Solar Park, Ratchaburi have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dragon Solar Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Muangthong United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 0D 9L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Muangthong United have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in Ratchaburi's favour (1.90 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Ratchaburi 3W, Muangthong United 5W, 1D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 3–1 with Ratchaburi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Muangthong United — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 54% versus Muangthong United 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 54% | Muangthong United 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.47 xG and Muangthong United 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.798 / defence 0.750 | Muangthong United attack 0.888 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.055. Ratchaburi's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.47 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ratchaburi's defence rating of 0.750 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Ratchaburi games / 48 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 56% | Draw 27% | Muangthong United 18%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Muangthong United 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Muangthong United lead the H2H ledger, but Ratchaburi carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 30% | Muangthong United 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 56% | Draw 27% | Muangthong United 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 39% | xG Ratchaburi 1.47 / Muangthong United 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.798 / def 0.750 | Muangthong United attack 0.888 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Muangthong United xG
39%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United?
Ratchaburi 3 - 2 Muangthong United.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United part of?
Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 56% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Ratchaburi and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Muangthong United?
Record (9 meetings): Ratchaburi 3W | Draws 1 | Muangthong United 5W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Muangthong United in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Muangthong United (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 0.80x the league average against Muangthong United's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Muangthong United's attack (0.89x) against Ratchaburi's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
56%
1.80
27%
3.77
18%
5.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.17
0.70
Muangthong United xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
5.61
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
28%
3.63
4%
24.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 11.8 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.70 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Ratchaburi have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 26W 9D 13L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Muangthong United's form line: 16W 10D 22L from 48 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ratchaburi are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Muangthong United.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ratchaburi have posted 2.00 PPG from 24 outings (14W 6D 4L).
On the road, Muangthong United have gone 4W 7D 13L from 24 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Muangthong United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.29 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Muangthong United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 26W 9D 13L in their last 48 games (1.81 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 16W 10D 22L in their last 48 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Muangthong United away?
Ratchaburi's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 2.00 PPG; Muangthong United away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Muangthong United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Muangthong United in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Ratchaburi have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Muangthong United won 4-0 on 12 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ratchaburi have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Muangthong United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
1
Draws
5
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Muangthong United?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 4, Muangthong United have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Ratchaburi 3-2 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Muangthong United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 46%, Muangthong United 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Ratchaburi) and 54% (Muangthong United).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Muangthong United in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Muangthong United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 58% of Muangthong United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 54% of Muangthong United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Muangthong United tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Muangthong United 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Muangthong United 3-2 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.47 xG and Muangthong United 0.70 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ratchaburi beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Muangthong United outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.80 / defence 0.75 against Muangthong United attack 0.89 / defence 1.16, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 56% | Draw 27% | Muangthong United 18%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 54%, Muangthong United 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Muangthong United's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Muangthong United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.