Ratchaburi 1-2 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ratchaburi vs Buriram United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ratchaburi and Buriram United meet at Mitr Phol Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Ratchaburi (all games): 2W 3D 3L across 8 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.12 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.12 goals per game and conceding 1.12 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 6W 1D 1L from 8 games (2.38 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.88 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 8 games (62%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United's away record: 2W 0D 1L from 3 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Buriram United are 1.26 PPG clear of Ratchaburi in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (2.38 vs 1.12). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (8 games): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games.
Buriram United — key trading statistics (8 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 50% versus Buriram United 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ratchaburi 38% | Buriram United 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 0.98 xG and Buriram United 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.002 / defence 1.074 | Buriram United attack 0.926 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 0.985 / away 1.240. Data: 8 Ratchaburi games / 8 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 29% | Draw 29% | Buriram United 42%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Buriram United 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Buriram United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 50% | Buriram United 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Mitr Phol Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 29% | Draw 29% | Buriram United 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Ratchaburi 0.98 / Buriram United 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.002 / def 1.074 | Buriram United attack 0.926 / def 0.996 | league avg home 0.985 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Buriram United xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Buriram United kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Buriram United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Mitr Phol Stadium.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Buriram United?
Ratchaburi 1 - 2 Buriram United.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Mitr Phol Stadium.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Buriram United part of?
Ratchaburi vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 29% chance of winning, Buriram United a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Ratchaburi and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Buriram United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ratchaburi and Buriram United in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.12 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Buriram United (all comps): 6W-1D-1L in 8 | 2.38 PPG | GF 1.88 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Buriram United's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — Buriram United's attack (0.93x) against Ratchaburi's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
29%
3.41
29%
3.49
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.22
1.24
Buriram United xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
9%
11.72
16%
6.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 13.4 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.24 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ratchaburi come into this having played 8 games, going 2W 3D 3L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Buriram United sit at 2.38 PPG from 8 outings (6W 1D 1L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.26 PPG clear of Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 1.88 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Buriram United in 25%.
Defensively: Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Buriram United in 62% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 6W 1D 1L in their last 8 (2.38 PPG).
Have Ratchaburi or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Buriram United in 62%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 6-0 on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ratchaburi have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Buriram United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Ratchaburi
3
Draws
6
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Buriram United?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 1, Buriram United have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Ratchaburi 2-2 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Buriram United see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 50%, Buriram United 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Ratchaburi) and 38% (Buriram United).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Buriram United in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Buriram United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 25% of Buriram United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 38% of Buriram United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Buriram United tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Buriram United edge out Ratchaburi 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Ratchaburi 1-2 at Mitr Phol Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 0.98 xG and Buriram United 1.24 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.00 / defence 1.07 against Buriram United attack 0.93 / defence 1.00, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 29% | Draw 29% | Buriram United 42%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 38%, Buriram United 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (8 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Buriram United's trading profile (8 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Ratchaburi shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.