Ratchaburi 0-1 BG Pathum United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ratchaburi host BG Pathum United at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 May 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ratchaburi — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi at Dragon Solar Park this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Ratchaburi are significantly better at Dragon Solar Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, BG Pathum United have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, BG Pathum United have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ratchaburi at 1.60 PPG versus BG Pathum United's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ratchaburi register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, BG Pathum United in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Ratchaburi have won 1, BG Pathum United 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with BG Pathum United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (56 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
BG Pathum United in-play and half-time data (56 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 46% versus BG Pathum United 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 32% | BG Pathum United 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.55 xG and BG Pathum United 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.951 / defence 1.065 | BG Pathum United attack 1.021 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.205. Data: 56 Ratchaburi games / 56 BG Pathum United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 42% | Draw 26% | BG Pathum United 32%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | BG Pathum United 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 60% | BG Pathum United 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 42% | Draw 26% | BG Pathum United 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Ratchaburi 1.55 / BG Pathum United 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.951 / def 1.065 | BG Pathum United attack 1.021 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.31
BG Pathum United xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United kick off?
Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United?
Ratchaburi 0 - 1 BG Pathum United.
Where is Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United part of?
Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 42% chance of winning, BG Pathum United a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United?
Record (5 meetings): Ratchaburi 1W | Draws 1 | BG Pathum United 3W.
What form are Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. BG Pathum United (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against BG Pathum United's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, BG Pathum United's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
42%
2.37
26%
3.82
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.86
1.31
BG Pathum United xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
7%
14.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.31 for BG Pathum United, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Ratchaburi have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 20W 16D 20L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BG Pathum United's form line: 23W 14D 19L from 56 games, 1.48 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ratchaburi on 1.36 PPG, BG Pathum United on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ratchaburi have posted 1.69 PPG from 26 outings (12W 8D 6L).
On the road, BG Pathum United have gone 7W 7D 12L from 26 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; BG Pathum United are on 1.61 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
BG Pathum United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 20W 16D 20L in their last 56 games (1.36 PPG), while BG Pathum United have gone 23W 14D 19L in their last 56 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or BG Pathum United away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.69 PPG; BG Pathum United away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Nov 2022, when Ratchaburi won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting BG Pathum United specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ratchaburi
3
Draws
4
BG Pathum United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 3, BG Pathum United have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when BG Pathum United 2-2 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
BG Pathum United see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 58%, BG Pathum United 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Ratchaburi) and 46% (BG Pathum United).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; BG Pathum United in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / BG Pathum United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play BG Pathum United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 42% of BG Pathum United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 46% of BG Pathum United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, BG Pathum United in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as BG Pathum United defy the odds to beat Ratchaburi 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BG Pathum United beat Ratchaburi 0-1 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.55 xG and BG Pathum United 1.31 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ratchaburi fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.95 / defence 1.06 against BG Pathum United attack 1.02 / defence 0.98, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 42% | Draw 26% | BG Pathum United 32%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual BG Pathum United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 32%, BG Pathum United 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (56 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
BG Pathum United's trading profile (56 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.36 PPG, BG Pathum United 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BG Pathum United win broke the near-deadlock. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.