Prachuap 1-1 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Prachuap at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Khon Kaen United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Khon Kaen United travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 October 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sam Ao Stadium, Prachuap have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Prachuap are significantly better at Sam Ao Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Khon Kaen United — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khon Kaen United's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Prachuap 1.00 PPG, Khon Kaen United 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Prachuap have won 0, Khon Kaen United 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with Khon Kaen United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Prachuap trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Khon Kaen United trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 55% versus Khon Kaen United 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 58% | Khon Kaen United 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.51 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.041 / defence 1.241 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.678 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.128. Data: 40 Prachuap games / 40 Khon Kaen United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 50% | Draw 26% | Khon Kaen United 24%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Khon Kaen United 4.17. Prachuap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Prachuap are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Prachuap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Prachuap 50% | Khon Kaen United 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Khon Kaen United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 50% | Draw 26% | Khon Kaen United 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Prachuap 1.51 / Khon Kaen United 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.041 / def 1.241 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.678 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Khon Kaen United xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Khon Kaen United kick off?
Prachuap vs Khon Kaen United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Khon Kaen United?
Prachuap 1 - 1 Khon Kaen United.
Where is Prachuap vs Khon Kaen United being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Khon Kaen United part of?
Prachuap vs Khon Kaen United is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Khon Kaen United?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 50% chance of winning, Khon Kaen United a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Khon Kaen United?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Prachuap and Khon Kaen United will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Khon Kaen United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Khon Kaen United?
Record (2 meetings): Prachuap 0W | Draws 0 | Khon Kaen United 2W.
What form are Prachuap and Khon Kaen United in?
Prachuap (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Khon Kaen United (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Prachuap's attack at 1.04x the league average against Khon Kaen United's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Khon Kaen United's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
50%
1.99
26%
3.84
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.46
0.95
Khon Kaen United xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
5%
18.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.3 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Khon Kaen United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Khon Kaen United expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Prachuap and 0.95 for Khon Kaen United, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Khon Kaen United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Prachuap come into this having played 40 games, going 11W 8D 21L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Khon Kaen United sit at 1.08 PPG from 40 outings (11W 10D 19L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Prachuap on 1.02 PPG, Khon Kaen United on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Prachuap's home form reads 6W 5D 9L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Khon Kaen United have taken 0.75 points per game from 20 outings (4W 3D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Prachuap are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Khon Kaen United are on 0.82 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Khon Kaen United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Khon Kaen United in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 11W 8D 21L in their last 40 games (1.02 PPG), while Khon Kaen United have gone 11W 10D 19L in their last 40 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Khon Kaen United away?
Prachuap's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.15 PPG; Khon Kaen United away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Prachuap have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2023, when Prachuap won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Prachuap's record when hosting Khon Kaen United specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Prachuap
1
Draws
3
Khon Kaen United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Khon Kaen United?
From 8 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 4, Khon Kaen United have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Khon Kaen United last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Khon Kaen United 1-4 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Khon Kaen United?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 55%, Khon Kaen United 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Prachuap) and 45% (Khon Kaen United).
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Khon Kaen United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Khon Kaen United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Prachuap's recent matches and 45% of Khon Kaen United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Khon Kaen United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Prachuap's recent games and 45% of Khon Kaen United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Khon Kaen United tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Khon Kaen United in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prachuap and Khon Kaen United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Prachuap and Khon Kaen United drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.51 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.95 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.04 / defence 1.24 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.68 / defence 1.09, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 50% | Draw 26% | Khon Kaen United 24%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 58%, Khon Kaen United 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.02 PPG, Khon Kaen United 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.