Prachuap 0-2 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Buriram United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 5 as Prachuap welcome Buriram United to Sam Ao Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 outings — a 1.25 PPG return. Last five: D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 1.75 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 2W 1D 1L from 4 Thai League 1 matches — 1.75 PPG. Last five: D W W L. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 0.75. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Buriram United's 1.75 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Prachuap's 1.25 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Prachuap trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Buriram United trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Prachuap 100% and Buriram United 25% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Prachuap 100% | Buriram United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.60 xG and Buriram United 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.031 / defence 1.262 | Buriram United attack 0.684 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.325. Buriram United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Prachuap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Prachuap games / 4 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 45% | Draw 31% | Buriram United 24%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Buriram United 4.17. Prachuap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Prachuap at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Buriram United (1.75 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Prachuap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 100% | Buriram United 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 45% | Draw 31% | Buriram United 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Prachuap 1.60 / Buriram United 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.031 / def 1.262 | Buriram United attack 0.684 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Buriram United xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Buriram United kick off?
Prachuap vs Buriram United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Prachuap 0 - 2 Buriram United.
Where is Prachuap vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Buriram United part of?
Prachuap vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 45% chance of winning, Buriram United a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Prachuap and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Buriram United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Prachuap and Buriram United in?
Prachuap (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.75 | L5 D-L-D-W. Buriram United (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 0.75 | L5 D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (1.03) and Buriram United's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
45%
2.24
31%
3.20
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.75
1.14
Buriram United xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
5%
20.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.8 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.14 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Prachuap come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 2D 1L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Buriram United sit at 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L), a run that reads D-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Prachuap — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 1.75 scored and 0.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Buriram United in 25%.
Defensively: Buriram United in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Early Season
Buriram United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 games (1.25 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
Have Prachuap or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Buriram United in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Buriram United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when Buriram United won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Prachuap's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Prachuap
1
Draws
8
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Buriram United?
From 10 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 1, Buriram United have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2026, when Prachuap 1-1 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Buriram United see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 100%, Buriram United 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Prachuap and 50% for Buriram United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United in 50%; Buriram United in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Buriram United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Prachuap's games and 25% of Buriram United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Prachuap vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Prachuap's matches and 50% of Buriram United's.
Do Prachuap and Buriram United tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Buriram United cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Prachuap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Prachuap 0-2 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.60 xG and Buriram United 1.14 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Prachuap fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Buriram United outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.03 / defence 1.26 against Buriram United attack 0.68 / defence 1.24, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 45% | Draw 31% | Buriram United 24%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Buriram United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 100%, Buriram United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Buriram United's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Prachuap managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.