Port FC 3-2 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 77% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 8 as Port FC welcome Lamphun Warrior to PAT Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 October 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Port FC — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port FC's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at PAT Stadium this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Lamphun Warrior have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Port FC have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Port FC, 1 for Lamphun Warrior and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2023, ended 1–3 with Lamphun Warrior winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Port FC in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 78% versus Lamphun Warrior 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 65% | Lamphun Warrior 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 2.68 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.422 / defence 0.934 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.686 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.734 / away 1.236. Port FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.422 — their λ of 2.68 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 Port FC games / 37 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 77% | Draw 15% | Lamphun Warrior 8%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.30 | Draw 6.67 | Lamphun Warrior 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (77%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.47 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 80% | Lamphun Warrior 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 77% | Draw 15% | Lamphun Warrior 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 51% | xG Port FC 2.68 / Lamphun Warrior 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.422 / def 0.934 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.686 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.734 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Port FC (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.68
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Lamphun Warrior xG
51%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Port FC 3 - 2 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 77% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 8% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Port FC and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (2 meetings): Port FC 0W | Draws 1 | Lamphun Warrior 1W.
What form are Port FC and Lamphun Warrior in?
Port FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Port FC's attacking strength (1.42x league average) is weighed against Lamphun Warrior's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.68. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.1%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
77%
1.30
15%
6.68
8%
12.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.68
Port FC xG
Total xG
3.47
0.79
Lamphun Warrior xG
1.30
77%
Home win
6.68
15%
Draw
12.32
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
7%
14.61
Win to Nil
35%
2.87
1%
179.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.0 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Port FC and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 2.68 expected goals for Port FC and 0.79 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Port FC come into this having played 37 games, going 19W 11D 7L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lamphun Warrior sit at 1.08 PPG from 37 outings (10W 10D 17L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Port FC's home form reads 12W 4D 2L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamphun Warrior have taken 0.72 points per game from 18 outings (3W 4D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Port FC are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 0.84 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 19W 11D 7L in their last 37 games (1.84 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 10W 10D 17L in their last 37 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Port FC's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.22 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Port FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Mar 2026, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Port FC
2
Draws
2
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Lamphun Warrior?
From 8 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Port FC 3-0 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Lamphun Warrior see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 78%, Lamphun Warrior 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Port FC) and 33% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 78% of Port FC's recent matches and 28% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Port FC's recent games and 33% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Port FC edge out Lamphun Warrior 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Lamphun Warrior 3-2 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 2.68 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.79 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.42 / defence 0.93 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.69 / defence 1.09, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 77% | Draw 15% | Lamphun Warrior 8%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 77%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 65%, Lamphun Warrior 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Port FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.