Port FC 6-1 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Khon Kaen United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Port FC host Khon Kaen United at PAT Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 September 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port FC stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port FC's home record at PAT Stadium: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Khon Kaen United — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Khon Kaen United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Khon Kaen United have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Port FC have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Port FC have won 2, Khon Kaen United 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with Khon Kaen United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Port FC trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Khon Kaen United trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 77% and Khon Kaen United 46% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 63% | Khon Kaen United 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.85 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.151 / defence 0.965 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.774 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.048. Data: 35 Port FC games / 35 Khon Kaen United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 62% | Draw 23% | Khon Kaen United 15%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Khon Kaen United 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Port FC 80% | Khon Kaen United 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Khon Kaen United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 62% | Draw 23% | Khon Kaen United 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 46% | xG Port FC 1.85 / Khon Kaen United 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.151 / def 0.965 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.774 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.726 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Port FC (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Khon Kaen United xG
46%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Khon Kaen United kick off?
Port FC vs Khon Kaen United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Port FC 6 - 1 Khon Kaen United.
Where is Port FC vs Khon Kaen United being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Khon Kaen United part of?
Port FC vs Khon Kaen United is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 62% chance of winning, Khon Kaen United a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Port FC and Khon Kaen United will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Khon Kaen United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Khon Kaen United?
Record (4 meetings): Port FC 2W | Draws 1 | Khon Kaen United 1W.
What form are Port FC and Khon Kaen United in?
Port FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Khon Kaen United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Port FC's attack rating (1.15) and Khon Kaen United's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Khon Kaen United's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
62%
1.61
23%
4.33
15%
6.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.63
0.78
Khon Kaen United xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
6.75
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
28%
3.53
2%
42.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 10.4 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Port FC and Khon Kaen United expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Port FC and 0.78 for Khon Kaen United, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Port FC come into this having played 35 games, going 17W 11D 7L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Khon Kaen United sit at 1.11 PPG from 35 outings (8W 15D 12L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Khon Kaen United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Port FC's home form reads 11W 4D 2L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.18 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — Port FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Khon Kaen United have taken 0.59 points per game from 17 outings (1W 7D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khon Kaen United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Port FC are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Khon Kaen United are on 0.86 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Early Season
Khon Kaen United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Khon Kaen United in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 17W 11D 7L in their last 35 games (1.77 PPG), while Khon Kaen United have gone 8W 15D 12L in their last 35 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Khon Kaen United away?
Port FC's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.18 PPG; Khon Kaen United away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Port FC and Khon Kaen United runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Sep 2023, when Port FC won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Khon Kaen United specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Port FC
2
Draws
2
Khon Kaen United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Khon Kaen United?
From 8 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Khon Kaen United have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Khon Kaen United last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2025, when Port FC 1-2 Khon Kaen United.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Khon Kaen United?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 76%, Khon Kaen United 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Port FC) and 29% (Khon Kaen United).
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Khon Kaen United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Khon Kaen United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Port FC's games and 47% of Khon Kaen United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Khon Kaen United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Port FC's recent games and 29% of Khon Kaen United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Khon Kaen United tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Khon Kaen United in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Port FC run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Khon Kaen United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Khon Kaen United 6-1 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.85 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.78 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 4.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.96 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.77 / defence 0.93, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 62% | Draw 23% | Khon Kaen United 15%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 63%, Khon Kaen United 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.