Port FC 0-0 BG Pathum United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs BG Pathum United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
BG Pathum United make the trip to PAT Stadium to face Port FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Port FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at PAT Stadium, Port FC have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Port FC are significantly better at PAT Stadium than their overall form suggests.
BG Pathum United (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, BG Pathum United have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. Port FC's 2.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of BG Pathum United's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to BG Pathum United, who have claimed 6 wins from 9 meetings compared to 3 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with BG Pathum United winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. BG Pathum United have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Port FC — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
BG Pathum United — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 55% versus BG Pathum United 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 54% | BG Pathum United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.57 xG and BG Pathum United 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.419 / defence 0.671 | BG Pathum United attack 1.060 / defence 0.744. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.100. Port FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.419 — their λ of 1.57 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. BG Pathum United's defence strength of 0.744 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Port FC's defence rating of 0.671 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Port FC games / 56 BG Pathum United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 54% | Draw 30% | BG Pathum United 16%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.85 | Draw 3.33 | BG Pathum United 6.25. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
BG Pathum United lead the H2H ledger, but Port FC carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 30% | BG Pathum United 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs BG Pathum United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 54% | Draw 30% | BG Pathum United 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Port FC 1.57 / BG Pathum United 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.419 / def 0.671 | BG Pathum United attack 1.060 / def 0.744 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Port FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.78
BG Pathum United xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs BG Pathum United kick off?
Port FC vs BG Pathum United kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs BG Pathum United?
Port FC 0 - 0 BG Pathum United.
Where is Port FC vs BG Pathum United being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs BG Pathum United part of?
Port FC vs BG Pathum United is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 54% chance of winning, BG Pathum United a 16% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Port FC and BG Pathum United will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs BG Pathum United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and BG Pathum United?
Record (9 meetings): Port FC 3W | Draws 0 | BG Pathum United 6W.
What form are Port FC and BG Pathum United in?
Port FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. BG Pathum United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Port FC's attacking strength (1.42x league average) is weighed against BG Pathum United's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — BG Pathum United's attack (1.06x) against Port FC's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
54%
1.87
30%
3.30
16%
6.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.35
0.78
BG Pathum United xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
6.22
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
3%
29.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 11.7 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Port FC and BG Pathum United expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Port FC and 0.78 for BG Pathum United, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs BG Pathum United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Port FC have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 28W 14D 14L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BG Pathum United's form line: 27W 16D 13L from 56 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Port FC against 1.73 for BG Pathum United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Port FC have posted 2.11 PPG from 28 outings (17W 8D 3L).
On the road, BG Pathum United have gone 10W 11D 7L from 28 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Port FC are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; BG Pathum United are on 1.55 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
BG Pathum United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and BG Pathum United in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 28W 14D 14L in their last 56 games (1.75 PPG), while BG Pathum United have gone 27W 16D 13L in their last 56 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or BG Pathum United away?
Port FC's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.11 PPG; BG Pathum United away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Port FC or BG Pathum United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, BG Pathum United in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against BG Pathum United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Port FC
1
Draws
6
BG Pathum United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and BG Pathum United?
From 10 meetings on record, Port FC have won 3, BG Pathum United have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and BG Pathum United last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Port FC 0-0 BG Pathum United.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and BG Pathum United?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 57%, BG Pathum United 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Port FC) and 50% (BG Pathum United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / BG Pathum United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play BG Pathum United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Port FC's games and 64% of BG Pathum United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs BG Pathum United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Port FC's matches and 50% of BG Pathum United's.
Do Port FC and BG Pathum United tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, BG Pathum United in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Port FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC and BG Pathum United finished level at 0-0 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.57 xG and BG Pathum United 0.78 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Port FC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.42 / defence 0.67 against BG Pathum United attack 1.06 / defence 0.74, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 54% | Draw 30% | BG Pathum United 16%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 54%, BG Pathum United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
BG Pathum United's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port FC 1.75 PPG, BG Pathum United 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.