Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-3 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Prachuap make the trip to His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium to face Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 January 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have posted 5W 3D 1L at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
Prachuap's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap's away record: 2W 1D 5L from 8 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.88 exceeds their overall 0.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Nakhon Ratchasima FC's 1.80 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Prachuap's 0.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nakhon Ratchasima FC lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Prachuap — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% versus Prachuap 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 39% | Prachuap 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.20 xG and Prachuap 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.938 / defence 0.952 | Prachuap attack 0.734 / defence 1.282. League average goals — home 0.993 / away 1.083. Prachuap bring a strong defensive rating of 1.282 — this is suppressing Nakhon Ratchasima FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 18 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 46% | Draw 30% | Prachuap 23%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Prachuap 4.35. Nakhon Ratchasima FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nakhon Ratchasima FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 33% | Prachuap 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jan 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 46% | Draw 30% | Prachuap 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.20 / Prachuap 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.938 / def 0.952 | Prachuap attack 0.734 / def 1.282 | league avg home 0.993 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Ratchasima FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Prachuap xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 30 January 2022 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2 - 3 Prachuap.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 46% chance of winning, Prachuap a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Ratchasima FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap?
Record (1 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1W | Draws 0 | Prachuap 0W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Prachuap (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Prachuap's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Prachuap's attack (0.73x) against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Win
46%
2.16
30%
3.30
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
1.95
0.76
Prachuap xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
7%
14.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 10.7 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 0.76 for Prachuap, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nakhon Ratchasima FC come into this having played 18 games, going 7W 5D 6L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Prachuap sit at 0.61 PPG from 18 outings (2W 5D 11L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Prachuap — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home form reads 4W 3D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Prachuap have taken 0.88 points per game from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Ratchasima FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 0.78 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 7W 5D 6L in their last 18 games (1.44 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 2W 5D 11L in their last 18 (0.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Prachuap away?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.88 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Prachuap in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Prachuap have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Prachuap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2
Draws
4
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap?
From 8 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, Prachuap have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-2 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Prachuap see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 38%, Prachuap 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 50% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Nakhon Ratchasima FC have failed to score in 38% of games; Prachuap in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Prachuap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent matches and 50% of Prachuap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 50% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Prachuap defy the odds to beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-3 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.20 xG and Prachuap 0.76 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Prachuap outscored their 0.76 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.95 against Prachuap attack 0.73 / defence 1.28, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 46% | Draw 30% | Prachuap 23%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Prachuap win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 39%, Prachuap 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Prachuap's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nakhon Ratchasima FC arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.61. Form was overturned, with Prachuap winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.