Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-1 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nakhon Ratchasima FC host Lamphun Warrior at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 August 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — All Games: 2W 0D 0L from 2 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 3.00 points per game. Last five: W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Nakhon Ratchasima FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have the edge — a 2.10 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 0, Lamphun Warrior 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.37 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.921 / defence 1.089 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.915 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.772 / away 1.247. Data: 2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 32 Lamphun Warrior games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 39% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 33%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Lamphun Warrior 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nakhon Ratchasima FC are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nakhon Ratchasima FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 39% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.37 / Lamphun Warrior 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.921 / def 1.089 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.915 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.772 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Ratchasima FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Lamphun Warrior xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1 - 1 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 39% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Ratchasima FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (2 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0W | Draws 2 | Lamphun Warrior 0W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating (0.92) and Lamphun Warrior's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Win
39%
2.54
27%
3.64
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.62
1.24
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
11%
8.82
8%
11.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.24 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent record stands at 2W 0D 0L from 2 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lamphun Warrior, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nakhon Ratchasima FC by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lamphun Warrior heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 0.50 scored and 0.50 conceded. Nakhon Ratchasima FC's scoring rate against Lamphun Warrior's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Ratchasima FC have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Lamphun Warrior in 0%.
Defensively: Lamphun Warrior in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Lamphun Warrior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Lamphun Warrior in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2025, when Lamphun Warrior won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
4
Draws
2
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior?
From 6 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 0, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-1 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent matches and 0% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 0% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.37 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.24 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.09 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.92 / defence 0.84, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 39% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 33%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 100%, Lamphun Warrior 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Nakhon Ratchasima FC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nakhon Ratchasima FC managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.