Muangthong United 2-1 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Muangthong United at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Muangthong United vs Prachuap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Muangthong United host Prachuap at Thunder Dome Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 March 2024 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Muangthong United — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Muangthong United's home record at Thunder Dome Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Prachuap have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Muangthong United at 1.20 PPG versus Prachuap's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Muangthong United hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for Prachuap, with 1 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 3–1 with Muangthong United winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Muangthong United and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Muangthong United trading profile (49 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Prachuap trading profile (49 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Muangthong United 61% and Prachuap 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Muangthong United 61% | Prachuap 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 1.75 xG and Prachuap 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 1.077 / defence 1.007 | Prachuap attack 0.859 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.193. Data: 49 Muangthong United games / 49 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 52% | Draw 28% | Prachuap 20%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Prachuap 5.00. Muangthong United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Muangthong United at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Muangthong United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Muangthong United 70% | Prachuap 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Thunder Dome Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Mar 2024, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 52% | Draw 28% | Prachuap 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Muangthong United 1.75 / Prachuap 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 1.077 / def 1.007 | Prachuap attack 0.859 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.609 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Prachuap xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Prachuap kick off?
Muangthong United vs Prachuap kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Prachuap?
Muangthong United 2 - 1 Prachuap.
Where is Muangthong United vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Prachuap part of?
Muangthong United vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 52% chance of winning, Prachuap a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Muangthong United and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Prachuap?
Record (5 meetings): Muangthong United 4W | Draws 1 | Prachuap 0W.
What form are Muangthong United and Prachuap in?
Muangthong United (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Prachuap (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Muangthong United's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Prachuap's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Muangthong United's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
52%
1.92
28%
3.62
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
2.78
1.03
Prachuap xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
4%
28.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Muangthong United and 1.03 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Muangthong United have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 20W 12D 17L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Prachuap's form line: 12W 15D 22L from 49 games, 1.04 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-W. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Muangthong United are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Prachuap.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Muangthong United have posted 1.77 PPG from 22 outings (11W 6D 5L).
On the road, Prachuap have gone 2W 8D 12L from 22 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Muangthong United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Muangthong United are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.31 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Prachuap in 67%.
Last 49 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 20W 12D 17L in their last 49 games (1.47 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 12W 15D 22L in their last 49 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Muangthong United at home or Prachuap away?
Muangthong United's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Muangthong United at home: 1.77 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Muangthong United or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Muangthong United have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Prachuap in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Muangthong United and Prachuap runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Prachuap go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Oct 2022, when Muangthong United won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Muangthong United's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Muangthong United
1
Draws
4
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Prachuap?
From 10 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 5, Prachuap have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Prachuap 2-1 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Prachuap?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Muangthong United 54%, Prachuap 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Muangthong United) and 50% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Muangthong United keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Prachuap in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Muangthong United's games and 68% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Muangthong United vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Muangthong United's recent games and 50% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Muangthong United and Prachuap tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Muangthong United edge out Prachuap 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Muangthong United beat Prachuap 2-1 at Thunder Dome Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.75 xG and Prachuap 1.03 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.08 / defence 1.01 against Prachuap attack 0.86 / defence 1.01, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 52% | Draw 28% | Prachuap 20%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 61%, Prachuap 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Muangthong United's trading profile (49 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Prachuap's trading profile (49 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Muangthong United arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.