Lamphun Warrior 1-2 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lamphun Warrior face Uthai Thani.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani meet at Mae Guang Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Monday 13 May 2024 at 13:30 UK time.

Form

Lamphun Warrior (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

In front of their own supporters, Lamphun Warrior have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Lamphun Warrior are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Uthai Thani's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Uthai Thani's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Lamphun Warrior's last 10 home games and Uthai Thani's last 10 away games) — Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Uthai Thani in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 0 for Uthai Thani and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended Lamphun Warrior 2–2 Uthai Thani — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Lamphun Warrior half-time and goal-timing data (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

Uthai Thani half-time and goal-timing data (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lamphun Warrior 63% and Uthai Thani 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 63% | Uthai Thani 56%). Note also that Uthai Thani surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Lamphun Warrior recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 2.13 xG and Uthai Thani 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.044 / defence 1.135 | Uthai Thani attack 1.061 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.152. Uthai Thani's defence rating of 1.230 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lamphun Warrior's projected output up. Data: built from Lamphun Warrior's last 57 games and Uthai Thani's last 27.

Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 54% | Draw 23% | Uthai Thani 24%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 1.87 | Draw 4.37 | Uthai Thani 4.23. Lamphun Warrior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (2.13 / 1.39) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Lamphun Warrior are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.52 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lamphun Warrior's last 10 home games and Uthai Thani's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lamphun Warrior 80% (last 10 home games) | Uthai Thani 60% (last 10 away games).

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