Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 48%, yet in-form Prachuap provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Prachuap travel to 700th Anniversary Stadium to take on Lamphun Warrior. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 December 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 1W 7D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lamphun Warrior haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's home record at 700th Anniversary Stadium: 2W 7D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Prachuap haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Prachuap have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Prachuap's 2.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Lamphun Warrior's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 3 for Prachuap and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 8 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Prachuap in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 67% versus Prachuap 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 47% | Prachuap 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.53 xG and Prachuap 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.947 / defence 0.988 | Prachuap attack 0.993 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.020. Data: 30 Lamphun Warrior games / 30 Prachuap games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 48% | Draw 30% | Prachuap 23%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Prachuap 4.35. Lamphun Warrior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamphun Warrior at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Prachuap (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 70% | Prachuap 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 48% | Draw 30% | Prachuap 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.53 / Prachuap 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.947 / def 0.988 | Prachuap attack 0.993 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Prachuap xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 48% chance of winning, Prachuap a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap?
Record (8 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 1W | Draws 4 | Prachuap 3W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lamphun Warrior's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Prachuap's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
48%
2.10
30%
3.38
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.53
1.00
Prachuap xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
5%
20.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.00 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamphun Warrior's recent record stands at 4W 17D 9L from 30 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-D in the last five. Lamphun Warrior haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Prachuap, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 7L across 30 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five. Prachuap haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Prachuap by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lamphun Warrior heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lamphun Warrior have managed 2W 10D 3L from 15 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Prachuap's away record stands at 3W 6D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.30 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Pre-Season
Prachuap
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 17D 9L in their last 30 games (0.97 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 11W 12D 7L in their last 30 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Prachuap away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.07 PPG; Prachuap away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Lamphun Warrior or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamphun Warrior have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Prachuap in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Lamphun Warrior
4
Draws
3
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Prachuap have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lamphun Warrior at 73%, Prachuap at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Lamphun Warrior) and 53% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Prachuap in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 60% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 53% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.