Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior at 74% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Police Tero travel to Mae Guang Stadium to take on Lamphun Warrior in Thai League 1 (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 April 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Lamphun Warrior — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Lamphun Warrior have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Lamphun Warrior are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Police Tero stand at 0W 2D 8L — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Police Tero's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Lamphun Warrior are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Lamphun Warrior's last 10 home games and Police Tero's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Lamphun Warrior have won 0, Police Tero 0, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Nov 2023, ended Lamphun Warrior 2–2 Police Tero — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Police Tero in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 48% versus Police Tero 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 48% | Police Tero 65%). Note also that Police Tero surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Lamphun Warrior recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 2.92 xG and Police Tero 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.120 / defence 1.004 | Police Tero attack 0.996 / defence 1.454. League average goals — home 1.791 / away 1.112. Police Tero's defence rating of 1.454 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lamphun Warrior's projected output up. Data: built from Lamphun Warrior's last 52 games and Police Tero's last 53.
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 74% | Draw 15% | Police Tero 11%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 1.36 | Draw 6.54 | Police Tero 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Lamphun Warrior (74%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 4.03. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.03 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (2.92 / 1.11) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamphun Warrior at 74% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lamphun Warrior's last 10 home games and Police Tero's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lamphun Warrior 80% (last 10 home games) | Police Tero 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 24 | Venue: Mae Guang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 April 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 74% | Draw 15% | Police Tero 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% (Under 23%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Lamphun Warrior 2.92 / Police Tero 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.120 / def 1.004 | Police Tero attack 0.996 / def 1.454 | league avg home 1.791 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.92
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Police Tero xG
64%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero FAQs
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Mae Guang Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero?
Lamphun Warrior 1 - 1 Police Tero.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at Mae Guang Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 24) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 74% chance of winning, Police Tero a 11% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Police Tero will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lamphun Warrior's attack at 1.12x the league average against Police Tero's defence at 1.45x — combine the two and it projects 2.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Police Tero's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lamphun Warrior's last 52 games and Police Tero's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
74%
1.36
15%
6.54
11%
9.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.92
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
4.03
1.11
Police Tero xG
1.36
74%
Home win
6.54
15%
Draw
9.09
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
5%
18.50
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
1%
168.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 2.92 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.11 for Police Tero, a combined total of 4.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamphun Warrior's recent record stands at 17W 14D 21L from 52 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Police Tero, meanwhile, have gone 16W 15D 21L across 52 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamphun Warrior on 1.25 PPG, Police Tero on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lamphun Warrior have managed 13W 7D 5L from their last 25 home games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Lamphun Warrior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Police Tero's away record stands at 7W 5D 13L across their last 25 away games, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 1.35 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Police Tero in 69%.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Police Tero
Blended
Lamphun Warrior (Home) vs Police Tero (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Police Tero
Blended
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero Form FAQs
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Police Tero in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 17W 14D 21L in their last 52 games (1.25 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 16W 15D 21L in their last 52 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Police Tero away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.84 PPG; Police Tero away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2022. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent in our data was on 7 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 4 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Police Tero specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Lamphun Warrior
4
Draws
0
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Police Tero?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Lamphun Warrior have won 0, Police Tero have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Police Tero last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 April 2024: Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Police Tero.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lamphun Warrior at 64%, Police Tero at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Lamphun Warrior and 72% for Police Tero. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lamphun Warrior and Police Tero matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 72% of Police Tero's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lamphun Warrior and Police Tero matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Lamphun Warrior's matches and 72% of Police Tero's.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Police Tero matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 80% of Police Tero's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamphun Warrior and Police Tero share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior and Police Tero finished level at 1-1 at Mae Guang Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 2.92 xG and Police Tero 1.11 xG, a combined 4.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.12 / defence 1.00 against Police Tero attack 1.00 / defence 1.45, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 74% | Draw 15% | Police Tero 11%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 74%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 48%, Police Tero 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Police Tero's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.25 PPG, Police Tero 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Police Tero (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.