Khon Kaen United 1-1 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Police Tero at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Khon Kaen United host Police Tero at Khon Kaen Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Khon Kaen United — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Khon Kaen Stadium, Khon Kaen United have gone 2W 1D 2L this season (5 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Police Tero have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Police Tero away from home this season: 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Khon Kaen United) versus 1.20 (Police Tero). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Khon Kaen United in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Police Tero in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khon Kaen United 50% versus Police Tero 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khon Kaen United 50% | Police Tero 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 1.02 xG and Police Tero 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.772 / defence 1.491 | Police Tero attack 0.924 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.036 / away 1.332. Khon Kaen United's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Police Tero bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Khon Kaen United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Khon Kaen United games / 10 Police Tero games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 21% | Draw 23% | Police Tero 57%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 4.76 | Draw 4.35 | Police Tero 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Police Tero (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Police Tero are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Khon Kaen United 40% | Police Tero 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 21% | Draw 23% | Police Tero 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Khon Kaen United 1.02 / Police Tero 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 0.772 / def 1.491 | Police Tero attack 0.924 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.036 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Police Tero (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Police Tero xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero?
Khon Kaen United 1 - 1 Police Tero.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero part of?
Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 21% chance of winning, Police Tero a 57% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Police Tero the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Khon Kaen United and Police Tero will score (BTTS).
Will Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Police Tero?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Khon Kaen United and Police Tero in?
Khon Kaen United (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Police Tero (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Khon Kaen United's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Police Tero's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Police Tero's attack versus Khon Kaen United's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Police Tero Win
21%
4.84
23%
4.40
57%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
2.85
1.84
Police Tero xG
4.84
21%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
1.77
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
16%
6.27
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
3%
30.33
20%
4.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 1.84 for Police Tero, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, Khon Kaen United have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 3W 1D 6L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Police Tero's form line: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khon Kaen United on 1.00 PPG, Police Tero on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Khon Kaen United have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
On the road, Police Tero have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Police Tero's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khon Kaen United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Khon Kaen United are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 1.60 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Police Tero in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Blended
Police Tero
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khon Kaen United and Police Tero in coming into this match?
Khon Kaen United have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 games (1.00 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khon Kaen United at home or Police Tero away?
Khon Kaen United's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khon Kaen United at home: 1.40 PPG; Police Tero away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Khon Kaen United and Police Tero runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Khon Kaen United go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2024, when Khon Kaen United won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khon Kaen United's record when hosting Police Tero specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Khon Kaen United
3
Draws
1
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Police Tero?
From 6 meetings on record, Khon Kaen United have won 2, Police Tero have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and Police Tero last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2024, when Khon Kaen United 4-0 Police Tero.
Who has won more matches between Khon Kaen United and Police Tero?
Khon Kaen United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khon Kaen United 40%, Police Tero 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Khon Kaen United) and 60% (Police Tero).
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United have failed to score in 40% of games; Police Tero in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khon Kaen United play Police Tero?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Khon Kaen United's recent matches and 40% of Police Tero's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Khon Kaen United's recent games and 60% of Police Tero's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khon Kaen United and Police Tero tend to score early?
Khon Kaen United have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Police Tero in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khon Kaen United and Police Tero share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Khon Kaen United and Police Tero drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 1.02 xG and Police Tero 1.84 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Police Tero landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.77 / defence 1.49 against Police Tero attack 0.92 / defence 1.27, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 21% | Draw 23% | Police Tero 57%, with Police Tero to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 50%, Police Tero 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Police Tero's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khon Kaen United 1.00 PPG, Police Tero 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.