Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Sukhothai FC travel to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium to take on Chonburi FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 December 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chonburi FC stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Chonburi FC have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Chonburi FC are significantly better at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sukhothai FC's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Chonburi FC) versus 1.20 (Sukhothai FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Chonburi FC, 3 for Sukhothai FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 2–0 with Chonburi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sukhothai FC in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 58% versus Sukhothai FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 50% | Sukhothai FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.69 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.901 / defence 1.071 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.774 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Sukhothai FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Chonburi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Chonburi FC games / 37 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 48% | Draw 26% | Sukhothai FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Sukhothai FC 3.85. Chonburi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chonburi FC 60% | Sukhothai FC 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Dec 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 48% | Draw 26% | Sukhothai FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Chonburi FC 1.69 / Sukhothai FC 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.901 / def 1.071 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.774 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Sukhothai FC xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 27 December 2026 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 48% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC?
Record (6 meetings): Chonburi FC 2W | Draws 1 | Sukhothai FC 3W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chonburi FC's attack rating (0.90) and Sukhothai FC's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
48%
2.09
26%
3.88
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.90
1.21
Sukhothai FC xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
5%
20.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.21 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chonburi FC come into this having played 36 games, going 11W 9D 16L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.03 PPG from 36 outings (9W 10D 17L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chonburi FC on 1.17 PPG, Sukhothai FC on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Chonburi FC's home form reads 6W 5D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.41 points per game from 17 outings (1W 4D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 0.92 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 11W 9D 16L in their last 36 games (1.17 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 9W 10D 17L in their last 36 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.35 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Chonburi FC's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Chonburi FC
1
Draws
3
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 2, Sukhothai FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Chonburi FC 2-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC?
Sukhothai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 65%, Sukhothai FC 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Chonburi FC) and 35% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC in 71%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Sukhothai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 29% of Sukhothai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 35% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.