Chonburi FC 1-3 BG Pathum United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BG Pathum United at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 11 as Chonburi FC welcome BG Pathum United to Chonburi UTA Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 November 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chonburi FC — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC's home record at Chonburi UTA Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, BG Pathum United have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, BG Pathum United have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. BG Pathum United's 2.10 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Chonburi FC's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Chonburi FC, 2 for BG Pathum United and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2023, ended 0–1 with BG Pathum United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Chonburi FC in-play and half-time data (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BG Pathum United in-play and half-time data (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 56% versus BG Pathum United 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 51% | BG Pathum United 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 0.95 xG and BG Pathum United 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.727 / defence 0.930 | BG Pathum United attack 0.904 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.254. Chonburi FC's attack strength of 0.727 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. BG Pathum United's defence strength of 0.788 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 Chonburi FC games / 39 BG Pathum United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 30% | Draw 34% | BG Pathum United 36%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | BG Pathum United 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BG Pathum United are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 50% | BG Pathum United 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Chonburi UTA Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 30% | Draw 34% | BG Pathum United 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Chonburi FC 0.95 / BG Pathum United 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.727 / def 0.930 | BG Pathum United attack 0.904 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.05
BG Pathum United xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United kick off?
Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United?
Chonburi FC 1 - 3 BG Pathum United.
Where is Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United part of?
Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 30% chance of winning, BG Pathum United a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United?
Record (4 meetings): Chonburi FC 1W | Draws 1 | BG Pathum United 2W.
What form are Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. BG Pathum United (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chonburi FC's attack at 0.73x the league average against BG Pathum United's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, BG Pathum United's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
30%
3.29
34%
2.99
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.00
1.05
BG Pathum United xG
3.29
30%
Home win
2.99
34%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
11%
9.42
14%
7.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 14.3 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.05 for BG Pathum United, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Chonburi FC have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 15W 8D 16L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BG Pathum United's form line: 17W 8D 14L from 39 games, 1.51 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chonburi FC on 1.36 PPG, BG Pathum United on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Chonburi FC have posted 1.67 PPG from 18 outings (9W 3D 6L).
On the road, BG Pathum United have gone 4W 5D 9L from 18 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.51 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BG Pathum United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; BG Pathum United are on 1.51 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
BG Pathum United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 15W 8D 16L in their last 39 games (1.36 PPG), while BG Pathum United have gone 17W 8D 14L in their last 39 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or BG Pathum United away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.67 PPG; BG Pathum United away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Chonburi FC or BG Pathum United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, BG Pathum United in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2022, when BG Pathum United won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chonburi FC's record when hosting BG Pathum United specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Chonburi FC
2
Draws
4
BG Pathum United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United?
From 8 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 2, BG Pathum United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when BG Pathum United 2-3 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
BG Pathum United see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 44%, BG Pathum United 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Chonburi FC) and 44% (BG Pathum United).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; BG Pathum United in 33%; BG Pathum United in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / BG Pathum United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play BG Pathum United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 28% of BG Pathum United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 44% of BG Pathum United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, BG Pathum United in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BG Pathum United cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Chonburi FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BG Pathum United beat Chonburi FC 1-3 at Chonburi UTA Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 0.95 xG and BG Pathum United 1.05 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. BG Pathum United outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.73 / defence 0.93 against BG Pathum United attack 0.90 / defence 0.79, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 30% | Draw 34% | BG Pathum United 36%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 51%, BG Pathum United 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
BG Pathum United's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.36 PPG, BG Pathum United 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BG Pathum United win broke the near-deadlock. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.