Chiangrai United 1-0 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chiangrai United host Uthai Thani at Leo Chiangrai Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chiangrai United — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chiangrai United have posted 4W 3D 3L at Leo Chiangrai Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Uthai Thani have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Uthai Thani have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chiangrai United at 1.30 PPG versus Uthai Thani's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Chiangrai United, 1 for Uthai Thani and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 51% versus Uthai Thani 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 41% | Uthai Thani 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.36 xG and Uthai Thani 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.845 / defence 0.924 | Uthai Thani attack 0.766 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.027. Data: 59 Chiangrai United games / 59 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 49% | Draw 33% | Uthai Thani 17%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.04 | Draw 3.03 | Uthai Thani 5.88. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 40% | Uthai Thani 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Leo Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 49% | Draw 33% | Uthai Thani 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Chiangrai United 1.36 / Uthai Thani 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.845 / def 0.924 | Uthai Thani attack 0.766 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Uthai Thani xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani?
Chiangrai United 1 - 0 Uthai Thani.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani part of?
Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 49% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 17% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani?
Record (5 meetings): Chiangrai United 2W | Draws 2 | Uthai Thani 1W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Uthai Thani (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chiangrai United's attack at 0.84x the league average against Uthai Thani's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Uthai Thani's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
49%
2.02
33%
3.02
17%
5.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.09
0.73
Uthai Thani xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
5.73
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
4%
22.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.3 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 0.73 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chiangrai United's recent record stands at 19W 16D 24L from 59 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Uthai Thani, meanwhile, have gone 16W 20D 23L across 59 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chiangrai United on 1.24 PPG, Uthai Thani on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chiangrai United have managed 15W 5D 9L from 29 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Chiangrai United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Uthai Thani's away record stands at 5W 8D 16L across 29 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.29 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Current Season
Uthai Thani
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 19W 16D 24L in their last 59 games (1.24 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 16W 20D 23L in their last 59 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Uthai Thani away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.72 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Chiangrai United won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Uthai Thani specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Chiangrai United
2
Draws
1
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani?
From 6 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 3, Uthai Thani have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-0 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 34%, Uthai Thani 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Chiangrai United) and 45% (Uthai Thani).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Uthai Thani in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Uthai Thani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 55% of Uthai Thani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 45% of Uthai Thani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chiangrai United edge out Uthai Thani 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Uthai Thani 1-0 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.36 xG and Uthai Thani 0.73 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.84 / defence 0.92 against Uthai Thani attack 0.77 / defence 1.07, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 49% | Draw 33% | Uthai Thani 17%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 41%, Uthai Thani 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.24 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chiangrai United win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.