Chiangrai United 1-1 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chiangrai United at 76% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC meet at LEO Chiangrai Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chiangrai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chiangrai United have posted 5W 3D 2L at LEO Chiangrai Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
Sukhothai FC (all games): 1W 2D 3L across 6 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.83 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.83 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 2L across 3 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Chiangrai United. A 1.07 PPG lead over Sukhothai FC (1.90 vs 0.83) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Chiangrai United — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Sukhothai FC — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Chiangrai United 33% | Sukhothai FC 17%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chiangrai United 33% | Sukhothai FC 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 2.38 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 1.293 / defence 0.821 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.682 / defence 1.407. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.187. Chiangrai United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.293 — their λ of 2.38 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sukhothai FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.407 — this is suppressing Chiangrai United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Chiangrai United games / 6 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 76% | Draw 16% | Sukhothai FC 9%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 1.32 | Draw 6.25 | Sukhothai FC 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Chiangrai United (76%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 40% | Sukhothai FC 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: LEO Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 76% | Draw 16% | Sukhothai FC 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 44% | xG Chiangrai United 2.38 / Sukhothai FC 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 1.293 / def 0.821 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.682 / def 1.407 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Sukhothai FC xG
44%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC?
Chiangrai United 1 - 1 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 76% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 9% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 1.83 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Chiangrai United's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Sukhothai FC's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.38. Flip it around — Sukhothai FC's attack (0.68x) against Chiangrai United's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.5%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
76%
1.32
16%
6.32
9%
11.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
3 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
3.05
0.67
Sukhothai FC xG
1.32
76%
Home win
6.32
16%
Draw
11.71
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
51%
1.94
9%
10.84
Win to Nil
39%
2.57
1%
126.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.7 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 0.67 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 6 outings, Chiangrai United have picked up 2.17 PPG on a 4W 1D 1L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sukhothai FC's form line: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games, 0.83 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Chiangrai United are the form team by 1.34 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sukhothai FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Chiangrai United have posted 3.00 PPG from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.17 PPG overall — Chiangrai United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sukhothai FC have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 0.33 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC in 17%.
Defensively: Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games; Sukhothai FC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Early Season
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 4W 1D 1L in their last 6 games (2.17 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Chiangrai United's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 3.00 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Sukhothai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Sukhothai FC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sukhothai FC won 3-0 on 25 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chiangrai United have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Chiangrai United
5
Draws
2
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 1, Sukhothai FC have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-1 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC?
Sukhothai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Chiangrai United) and 33% (Sukhothai FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Chiangrai United and 33% for Sukhothai FC.
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Sukhothai FC in 33%; Sukhothai FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Sukhothai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 33% of Sukhothai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 33% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at LEO Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 2.38 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.67 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Chiangrai United fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 1.29 / defence 0.82 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.68 / defence 1.41, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 76% | Draw 16% | Sukhothai FC 9%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 76%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 33%, Sukhothai FC 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chiangrai United arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.