Chiangrai United 0-2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chiangrai United face Nakhon Ratchasima FC.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Chiangrai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC meet at Singha Chiangrai Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 13). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 11:00 UK time.

Current Form

Chiangrai United's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters, Chiangrai United have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 2L across their last 6 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Chiangrai United, 2 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2023, ended Chiangrai United 1–3 Nakhon Ratchasima FC — a Nakhon Ratchasima FC win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Chiangrai United — key trading statistics (last 11 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC — key trading statistics (last 11 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 36% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 46% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.49 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.867 / defence 1.115 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.653 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.782 / away 1.123. Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating of 0.653 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Data: built from Chiangrai United's last 40 games and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 11.

Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 50% | Draw 32% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 18%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 1.98 | Draw 3.17 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 5.55. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Chiangrai United are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chiangrai United 40% (last 10 home games) | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% (last 6 away games).

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