Chiangrai United 1-0 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chiangrai United at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chiangrai United host Khon Kaen United at Singha Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chiangrai United have gone 4W 2D 2L from 8 outings — a 1.75 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.62 goals per game, with 1.25 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chiangrai United have posted 1W 2D 2L at Singha Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.75 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Singha Stadium this season.
Khon Kaen United — All Games: 2W 1D 5L from 8 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.88 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 2.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.25 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Khon Kaen United have posted 0W 0D 3L from 3 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.88 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Chiangrai United carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.87 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.75 vs 0.88. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chiangrai United register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Khon Kaen United in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Chiangrai United in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
Khon Kaen United in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 62% versus Khon Kaen United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 62% | Khon Kaen United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.34 xG and Khon Kaen United 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.900 / defence 1.273 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.687 / defence 1.502. League average goals — home 0.991 / away 1.261. Khon Kaen United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.502 — this is suppressing Chiangrai United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Chiangrai United games / 8 Khon Kaen United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 42% | Draw 27% | Khon Kaen United 31%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Khon Kaen United 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Chiangrai United 60% | Khon Kaen United 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Singha Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 42% | Draw 27% | Khon Kaen United 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Chiangrai United 1.34 / Khon Kaen United 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.900 / def 1.273 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.687 / def 1.502 | league avg home 0.991 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Khon Kaen United xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Singha Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United?
Chiangrai United 1 - 0 Khon Kaen United.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United being played?
The match is being played at Singha Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United part of?
Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 42% chance of winning, Khon Kaen United a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Chiangrai United and Khon Kaen United will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Khon Kaen United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chiangrai United and Khon Kaen United in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 4W-2D-2L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.62 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Khon Kaen United (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 2.25 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chiangrai United's attack at 0.90x the league average against Khon Kaen United's defence at 1.50x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Khon Kaen United's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
42%
2.38
27%
3.68
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.44
1.10
Khon Kaen United xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
14%
7.15
8%
12.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Khon Kaen United expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.10 for Khon Kaen United, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chiangrai United come into this having played 8 games, going 4W 2D 2L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Khon Kaen United sit at 0.88 PPG from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chiangrai United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.87 PPG clear of Khon Kaen United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Chiangrai United's home form reads 0W 1D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.75 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Khon Kaen United have taken 0.00 points per game from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L). That's a step down from their 0.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khon Kaen United's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Khon Kaen United are on 0.75 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 8 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Khon Kaen United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Khon Kaen United in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 games (1.75 PPG), while Khon Kaen United have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Khon Kaen United away?
Chiangrai United's home record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 0.33 PPG; Khon Kaen United away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Khon Kaen United specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Chiangrai United
2
Draws
1
Khon Kaen United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Khon Kaen United?
From 8 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 5, Khon Kaen United have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Khon Kaen United last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Khon Kaen United 3-1 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Khon Kaen United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chiangrai United tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 33%, Khon Kaen United 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Chiangrai United) and 67% (Khon Kaen United).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Chiangrai United have failed to score in 67% of games; Khon Kaen United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Khon Kaen United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Khon Kaen United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 67% of Khon Kaen United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 67% of Khon Kaen United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Khon Kaen United tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Khon Kaen United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chiangrai United edge out Khon Kaen United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Khon Kaen United 1-0 at Singha Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.34 xG and Khon Kaen United 1.10 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Khon Kaen United landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.90 / defence 1.27 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.69 / defence 1.50, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 42% | Draw 27% | Khon Kaen United 31%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 62%, Khon Kaen United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Chiangrai United arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.