Chiangrai United 1-0 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Chonburi FC at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Chiangrai United welcome Chonburi FC to LEO Chiangrai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 February 2022 at 11:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chiangrai United have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Chiangrai United's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at LEO Chiangrai Stadium this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Chonburi FC stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Chonburi FC away from home this season: 3W 2D 3L from 8 away games — 1.38 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.38 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Chonburi FC's 2.30 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Chiangrai United's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Chiangrai United, 0 for Chonburi FC and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2021, ended 3–2 with Chiangrai United winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Chiangrai United in-play and half-time data (19 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.

Chonburi FC in-play and half-time data (19 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 37% versus Chonburi FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 47% | Chonburi FC 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 0.82 xG and Chonburi FC 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.637 / defence 1.327 | Chonburi FC attack 1.126 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.009 / away 1.120. Chiangrai United's attack strength of 0.637 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Chonburi FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing Chiangrai United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Chiangrai United games / 19 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 18% | Draw 24% | Chonburi FC 58%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 5.56 | Draw 4.17 | Chonburi FC 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Chonburi FC (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 30% | Chonburi FC 50% BTTS from recent games.

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