Chiangrai United 1-3 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chiangrai United at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Chiangrai United welcome Chonburi FC to Leo Chiangrai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 February 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chiangrai United have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Leo Chiangrai Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Chiangrai United are significantly better at Leo Chiangrai Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chonburi FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Chiangrai United) versus 1.40 (Chonburi FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Chiangrai United, 1 for Chonburi FC and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Chiangrai United in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).
Chonburi FC in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chiangrai United 70% and Chonburi FC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chiangrai United 30% | Chonburi FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.17 xG and Chonburi FC 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.752 / defence 0.853 | Chonburi FC attack 0.766 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.120. Chiangrai United's attack strength of 0.752 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Chiangrai United games / 20 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 44% | Draw 34% | Chonburi FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.27 | Draw 2.94 | Chonburi FC 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Chiangrai United dominate the H2H record, yet Chonburi FC are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 40% | Chonburi FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Leo Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 44% | Draw 34% | Chonburi FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Chiangrai United 1.17 / Chonburi FC 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.752 / def 0.853 | Chonburi FC attack 0.766 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Chonburi FC xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC?
Chiangrai United 1 - 3 Chonburi FC.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC part of?
Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 44% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 21% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC?
Record (7 meetings): Chiangrai United 3W | Draws 3 | Chonburi FC 1W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Chonburi FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chiangrai United's attack at 0.75x the league average against Chonburi FC's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
44%
2.25
34%
2.91
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
1.90
0.73
Chonburi FC xG
2.25
44%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
7%
15.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 10.9 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 0.73 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chiangrai United's recent record stands at 5W 10D 5L from 20 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chonburi FC, meanwhile, have gone 5W 7D 8L across 20 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chiangrai United on 1.25 PPG, Chonburi FC on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chiangrai United have managed 4W 2D 3L from 9 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chonburi FC's away record stands at 2W 2D 5L across 9 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.10 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Chonburi FC in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Chonburi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 5W 10D 5L in their last 20 games (1.25 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 5W 7D 8L in their last 20 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Chonburi FC away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.56 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Chonburi FC specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Chiangrai United
3
Draws
2
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC?
From 9 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 4, Chonburi FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-0 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Chonburi FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 33%, Chonburi FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Chiangrai United) and 56% (Chonburi FC).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Chiangrai United have failed to score in 33% of games; Chonburi FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Chonburi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 56% of Chonburi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 56% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chonburi FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Chiangrai United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Chiangrai United 1-3 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.17 xG and Chonburi FC 0.73 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Chonburi FC outscored their 0.73 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.75 / defence 0.85 against Chonburi FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.02, drawn from 50/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 44% | Draw 34% | Chonburi FC 21%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Chonburi FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 30%, Chonburi FC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.25 PPG, Chonburi FC 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chonburi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.