Chiangrai United 0-0 Chiangmai United – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Chiangrai United at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangrai United vs Chiangmai United encounter.

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Analysis

Chiangmai United make the trip to LEO Chiangrai Stadium to face Chiangrai United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 April 2022 at 12:30 UTC.

Current Form

Chiangrai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Chiangrai United's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at LEO Chiangrai Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at LEO Chiangrai Stadium this season.

Chiangmai United (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Chiangmai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Chiangmai United away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form ledger tips toward Chiangrai United. A 0.70 PPG lead over Chiangmai United (1.50 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chiangrai United lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Chiangrai United winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Chiangrai United half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.

Chiangmai United half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 36% versus Chiangmai United 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 44% | Chiangmai United 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.26 xG and Chiangmai United 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.835 / defence 1.196 | Chiangmai United attack 0.899 / defence 1.600. League average goals — home 0.947 / away 1.090. Chiangmai United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.600 — this is suppressing Chiangrai United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Chiangrai United games / 25 Chiangmai United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 37% | Draw 30% | Chiangmai United 33%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Chiangmai United 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Chiangrai United 30% | Chiangmai United 70%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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