Buriram United 3-0 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Buriram United (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Buriram United face Police Tero.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Police Tero travel to Chang Arena to take on Buriram United. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 February 2023, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United's home record at Chang Arena: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Police Tero have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Police Tero have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 1.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Buriram United register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Police Tero in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Buriram United, 0 for Police Tero and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 4–1 with Buriram United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Buriram United in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Police Tero in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 45% versus Police Tero 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 51% | Police Tero 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 2.29 xG and Police Tero 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.281 / defence 0.783 | Police Tero attack 1.227 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.158. Buriram United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — their λ of 2.29 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Police Tero bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing Buriram United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Police Tero have an above-average attack strength of 1.227 — the away xG of 1.11 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Buriram United's defence rating of 0.783 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Buriram United games / 49 Police Tero games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 63% | Draw 21% | Police Tero 16%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Police Tero 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.29 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Buriram United are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.41 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Buriram United 70% | Police Tero 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 63% | Draw 21% | Police Tero 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 62% | xG Buriram United 2.29 / Police Tero 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.281 / def 0.783 | Police Tero attack 1.227 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Police Tero xG
62%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Police Tero kick off?
Buriram United vs Police Tero kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Police Tero?
Buriram United 3 - 0 Police Tero.
Where is Buriram United vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Police Tero part of?
Buriram United vs Police Tero is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 63% chance of winning, Police Tero a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Buriram United and Police Tero will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Police Tero?
Record (3 meetings): Buriram United 2W | Draws 1 | Police Tero 0W.
What form are Buriram United and Police Tero in?
Buriram United (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Police Tero (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Buriram United's attack rating (1.28) and Police Tero's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Police Tero's attack versus Buriram United's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
63%
1.60
21%
4.68
16%
6.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Buriram United xG
Total xG
3.41
1.11
Police Tero xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
6.26
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
10%
9.91
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
2%
62.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Buriram United and 1.11 for Police Tero, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Police Tero?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Buriram United's recent record stands at 34W 9D 6L from 49 games, a 2.27 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Police Tero, meanwhile, have gone 15W 19D 15L across 49 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Buriram United by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Police Tero heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Buriram United have managed 17W 5D 2L from 24 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Police Tero's away record stands at 5W 9D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Buriram United are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 1.16 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
Police Tero
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Police Tero in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 34W 9D 6L in their last 49 games (2.27 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 15W 19D 15L in their last 49 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Police Tero away?
Buriram United's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.33 PPG; Police Tero away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Police Tero been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Police Tero in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Buriram United have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2024, when Buriram United won 6-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Buriram United's record when hosting Police Tero specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Buriram United
1
Draws
0
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Police Tero?
From 6 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 5, Police Tero have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Police Tero last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Buriram United 6-2 Police Tero.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Police Tero?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 50%, Police Tero 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Buriram United) and 50% (Police Tero).
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Police Tero in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Police Tero?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Buriram United's recent matches and 58% of Police Tero's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Buriram United vs Police Tero usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Buriram United's recent games and 50% of Police Tero's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Buriram United and Police Tero tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Police Tero in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Police Tero.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Police Tero 3-0 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 2.29 xG and Police Tero 1.11 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Police Tero landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.28 / defence 0.78 against Police Tero attack 1.23 / defence 1.25, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 63% | Draw 21% | Police Tero 16%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 51%, Police Tero 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Police Tero's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.31. Form held, and they took the win. Buriram United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm. Police Tero (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.