Buriram United 3-1 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Police Tero at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Buriram United vs Police Tero fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Police Tero travel to Chang Arena to take on Buriram United. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 September 2021, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 0W 1D 0L from 1 Thai League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Police Tero have recorded 0W 1D 0L from 1 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Police Tero have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Buriram United) versus 1.00 (Police Tero). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.24 xG and Police Tero 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 0.776 / defence 0.974 | Police Tero attack 1.039 / defence 1.353. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.437. Buriram United's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Police Tero bring a strong defensive rating of 1.353 — this is suppressing Buriram United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 1 Buriram United games / 1 Police Tero games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Buriram United 29% | Draw 33% | Police Tero 38%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Police Tero 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Police Tero are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Police Tero offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 29% | Draw 33% | Police Tero 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Buriram United 1.24 / Police Tero 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 0.776 / def 0.974 | Police Tero attack 1.039 / def 1.353 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: Police Tero (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Police Tero xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Police Tero kick off?
Buriram United vs Police Tero kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Police Tero?
Buriram United 3 - 1 Police Tero.
Where is Buriram United vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Police Tero part of?
Buriram United vs Police Tero is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 29% chance of winning, Police Tero a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Police Tero the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Buriram United and Police Tero will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Police Tero?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Buriram United and Police Tero in?
Buriram United (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D. Police Tero (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Buriram United's attack rating (0.78) and Police Tero's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Police Tero's attack versus Buriram United's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Police Tero Win
29%
3.49
33%
3.03
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Buriram United xG
Total xG
2.70
1.45
Police Tero xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
7%
14.92
11%
9.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Buriram United and 1.45 for Police Tero, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Police Tero?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Buriram United's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Police Tero, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 0L across 1 games — 1.00 PPG, with D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Police Tero, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Buriram United on 1.00 PPG, Police Tero on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Buriram United are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 3.00 scored and 3.00 conceded. Police Tero's attacking output running into Buriram United's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Buriram United have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Police Tero in 100%.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Early Season
Police Tero
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Police Tero in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have Buriram United or Police Tero been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Police Tero in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Buriram United have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2024, when Buriram United won 6-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Buriram United's record when hosting Police Tero specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Buriram United
1
Draws
0
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Police Tero?
From 6 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 5, Police Tero have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Police Tero last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Buriram United 6-2 Police Tero.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Police Tero?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Police Tero?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Buriram United's recent matches and 100% of Police Tero's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Buriram United vs Police Tero usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Buriram United's recent games and 100% of Police Tero's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Buriram United and Police Tero tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Police Tero in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Buriram United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Police Tero.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Police Tero 3-1 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 1.24 xG and Police Tero 1.45 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Buriram United beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 0.78 / defence 0.97 against Police Tero attack 1.04 / defence 1.35, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 29% | Draw 33% | Police Tero 38%, with Police Tero to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Buriram United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 0%, Police Tero 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Buriram United 1.00 PPG, Police Tero 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Buriram United win broke the near-deadlock. Buriram United scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Police Tero managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.