BG Pathum United 1-2 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BG Pathum United at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as BG Pathum United face Ratchaburi.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Ratchaburi travel to BG Stadium to take on BG Pathum United in Thai League 1 (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 15 January 2025 at 12:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, BG Pathum United have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
BG Pathum United's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ratchaburi — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Ratchaburi have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (BG Pathum United) versus 1.70 (Ratchaburi). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, BG Pathum United have won 4, Ratchaburi 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.1 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2024, ended BG Pathum United 1–4 Ratchaburi — a Ratchaburi win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
BG Pathum United trading profile (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Ratchaburi trading profile (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BG Pathum United 65% versus Ratchaburi 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BG Pathum United 56% | Ratchaburi 52%). Note also that Ratchaburi surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while BG Pathum United recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BG Pathum United 1.85 xG and Ratchaburi 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BG Pathum United attack 0.901 / defence 0.893 | Ratchaburi attack 1.019 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.184. Ratchaburi's defence rating of 1.266 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing BG Pathum United's projected output up. Data: built from BG Pathum United's last 46 games and Ratchaburi's last 46.
Result probabilities: BG Pathum United 54% | Draw 25% | Ratchaburi 21%. Fair-value odds: BG Pathum United 1.85 | Draw 3.92 | Ratchaburi 4.86. BG Pathum United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BG Pathum United are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (BG Pathum United's last 10 home games and Ratchaburi's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: BG Pathum United 60% (last 10 home games) | Ratchaburi 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 17 | Venue: BG Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 January 2025 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BG Pathum United 54% | Draw 25% | Ratchaburi 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG BG Pathum United 1.85 / Ratchaburi 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: BG Pathum United attack 0.901 / def 0.893 | Ratchaburi attack 1.019 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
BG Pathum United xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Ratchaburi xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi FAQs
What time does BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Wednesday 15 January 2025 at BG Stadium.
What was the final score in BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
BG Pathum United 1 - 2 Ratchaburi.
Where is BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at BG Stadium.
What competition is BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi part of?
BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 17) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives BG Pathum United a 54% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from BG Pathum United's attack rating (0.90) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus BG Pathum United's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from BG Pathum United's last 46 games and Ratchaburi's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
54%
1.85
25%
3.92
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
BG Pathum United xG
Total xG
2.92
1.08
Ratchaburi xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
3%
30.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.7 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 1.08 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, BG Pathum United have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 22W 14D 10L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Ratchaburi's form line: 17W 10D 19L from 46 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W.
Put side by side, BG Pathum United are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ratchaburi.
Venue Form
On home soil, BG Pathum United have posted 1.91 PPG from their last 22 home games (12W 6D 4L).
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 4W 6D 12L from their last 22 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ratchaburi's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BG Pathum United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
BG Pathum United are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.43 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BG Pathum United have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BG Pathum United
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
BG Pathum United (Home) vs Ratchaburi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
BG Pathum United
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi Form FAQs
What form are BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
BG Pathum United have gone 22W 14D 10L in their last 46 games (1.74 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 17W 10D 19L in their last 46 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BG Pathum United at home or Ratchaburi away?
BG Pathum United's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BG Pathum United at home: 1.91 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.82 PPG.
Have BG Pathum United or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
BG Pathum United have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Nov 2022, when Ratchaburi won Ratchaburi 3-0 BG Pathum United.
BG Pathum United's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
BG Pathum United
3
Draws
3
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, BG Pathum United have won 4, Ratchaburi have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: BG Pathum United 2-2 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 71% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BG Pathum United 64%, Ratchaburi 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (BG Pathum United) and 41% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BG Pathum United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of BG Pathum United's recent matches and 41% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of BG Pathum United's recent games and 41% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of BG Pathum United's recent matches and 64% of Ratchaburi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ratchaburi defy the odds to beat BG Pathum United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat BG Pathum United 1-2 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.85 xG and Ratchaburi 1.08 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. BG Pathum United fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Ratchaburi outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 0.90 / defence 0.89 against Ratchaburi attack 1.02 / defence 1.27, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 54% | Draw 25% | Ratchaburi 21%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Ratchaburi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 56%, Ratchaburi 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BG Pathum United's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Ratchaburi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.