BG Pathum United 1-0 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BG Pathum United at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Lamphun Warrior travel to BG Stadium to take on BG Pathum United. The game is scheduled for Friday 9 September 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
BG Pathum United — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. BG Pathum United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
BG Pathum United's home record at BG Stadium: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at BG Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — BG Pathum United are significantly better at BG Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 0W 1D 3L from 4 Thai League 1 matches — 0.25 PPG. Last five: D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
BG Pathum United are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 2.05 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.25). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
BG Pathum United in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (BG Pathum United 50% | Lamphun Warrior 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (BG Pathum United 75% | Lamphun Warrior 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BG Pathum United 1.44 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BG Pathum United attack 1.261 / defence 0.950 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.634 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.158. BG Pathum United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — their λ of 1.44 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 32 BG Pathum United games / 4 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BG Pathum United 55% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 18%. Fair-value odds: BG Pathum United 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Lamphun Warrior 5.56. The model has a clear lean to BG Pathum United (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BG Pathum United are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BG Pathum United 50% | Lamphun Warrior 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: BG Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 9 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BG Pathum United 55% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 38% | xG BG Pathum United 1.44 / Lamphun Warrior 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: BG Pathum United attack 1.261 / def 0.950 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.634 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
BG Pathum United xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Lamphun Warrior xG
38%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 9 September 2022 at BG Stadium.
What was the final score in BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior?
BG Pathum United 1 - 0 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at BG Stadium.
What competition is BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives BG Pathum United a 55% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both BG Pathum United and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Lamphun Warrior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are BG Pathum United and Lamphun Warrior in?
BG Pathum United (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates BG Pathum United's attack at 1.26x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus BG Pathum United's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
55%
1.82
27%
3.70
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
BG Pathum United xG
Total xG
2.13
0.70
Lamphun Warrior xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
4%
23.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 11.9 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are BG Pathum United and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 0.70 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
BG Pathum United come into this having played 4 games, going 2W 1D 1L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for BG Pathum United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lamphun Warrior sit at 0.25 PPG from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L), a run that reads D-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
BG Pathum United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
BG Pathum United are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. BG Pathum United's scoring rate against Lamphun Warrior's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior in 0%.
Last 4 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BG Pathum United
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BG Pathum United and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
BG Pathum United have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 (0.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2023, when Lamphun Warrior won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BG Pathum United's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
BG Pathum United
2
Draws
2
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Lamphun Warrior?
From 8 meetings on record, BG Pathum United have won 4, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did BG Pathum United and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 1-1 BG Pathum United.
Who has won more matches between BG Pathum United and Lamphun Warrior?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lamphun Warrior see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — BG Pathum United 50% BTTS, Lamphun Warrior 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (BG Pathum United) and 0% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BG Pathum United home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BG Pathum United play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of BG Pathum United's recent matches and 0% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of BG Pathum United's recent games and 0% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BG Pathum United and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
BG Pathum United have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as BG Pathum United edge out Lamphun Warrior 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BG Pathum United beat Lamphun Warrior 1-0 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.44 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.70 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 1.26 / defence 0.95 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.63 / defence 0.90, drawn from 32/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 55% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 18%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 75%, Lamphun Warrior 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BG Pathum United's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 100% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. BG Pathum United managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.