Bangkok United 1-1 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bangkok United at 77% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bangkok United vs Prachuap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 14 as Bangkok United welcome Prachuap to Thammasat Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 November 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bangkok United stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Bangkok United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bangkok United's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Thammasat Stadium this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thammasat Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Bangkok United are significantly better at Thammasat Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Prachuap — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Bangkok United are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Bangkok United, 1 for Prachuap and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with Prachuap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bangkok United trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Prachuap trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bangkok United 42% versus Prachuap 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bangkok United 40% | Prachuap 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bangkok United 2.81 xG and Prachuap 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bangkok United attack 1.372 / defence 0.791 | Prachuap attack 0.942 / defence 1.541. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.205. Bangkok United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.372 — their λ of 2.81 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Prachuap bring a strong defensive rating of 1.541 — this is suppressing Bangkok United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Bangkok United's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Bangkok United games / 43 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bangkok United 77% | Draw 14% | Prachuap 9%. Fair-value odds: Bangkok United 1.30 | Draw 7.14 | Prachuap 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Bangkok United (77%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bangkok United as the most likely outcome at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.71 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bangkok United 40% | Prachuap 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bangkok United vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Thammasat Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Nov 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bangkok United 77% | Draw 14% | Prachuap 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 56% | xG Bangkok United 2.81 / Prachuap 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Bangkok United attack 1.372 / def 0.791 | Prachuap attack 0.942 / def 1.541 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Bangkok United (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.81
Bangkok United xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Prachuap xG
56%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bangkok United vs Prachuap kick off?
Bangkok United vs Prachuap kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 19 November 2022 at Thammasat Stadium.
What was the final score in Bangkok United vs Prachuap?
Bangkok United 1 - 1 Prachuap.
Where is Bangkok United vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Thammasat Stadium.
What competition is Bangkok United vs Prachuap part of?
Bangkok United vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Bangkok United vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Bangkok United a 77% chance of winning, Prachuap a 9% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Bangkok United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bangkok United vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bangkok United and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Bangkok United vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bangkok United and Prachuap?
Record (2 meetings): Bangkok United 1W | Draws 0 | Prachuap 1W.
What form are Bangkok United and Prachuap in?
Bangkok United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Prachuap (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bangkok United's attack rating (1.37) and Prachuap's defence rating (1.54), the model arrives at 2.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Bangkok United's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bangkok United Win
77%
1.30
14%
7.03
9%
11.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.81
Bangkok United xG
Total xG
3.71
0.90
Prachuap xG
1.30
77%
Home win
7.03
14%
Draw
11.03
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
6%
16.56
Win to Nil
31%
3.20
1%
182.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bangkok United vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Bangkok United and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 2.81 expected goals for Bangkok United and 0.90 for Prachuap, a combined total of 3.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Bangkok United vs Prachuap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Bangkok United have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 23W 10D 10L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bangkok United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Prachuap's form line: 11W 9D 23L from 43 games, 0.98 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bangkok United are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Prachuap.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bangkok United have posted 2.29 PPG from 21 outings (14W 6D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.84 PPG overall — Bangkok United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Prachuap have gone 5W 3D 13L from 21 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bangkok United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bangkok United are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.07 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Defensively: Bangkok United have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bangkok United
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bangkok United and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Bangkok United have gone 23W 10D 10L in their last 43 games (1.84 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 11W 9D 23L in their last 43 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bangkok United at home or Prachuap away?
Bangkok United's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bangkok United at home: 2.29 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Bangkok United or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bangkok United have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Prachuap in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bangkok United and Prachuap runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2025, when Bangkok United won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bangkok United's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bangkok United
3
Draws
2
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bangkok United and Prachuap?
From 10 meetings on record, Bangkok United have won 5, Prachuap have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bangkok United and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Prachuap 0-0 Bangkok United.
Who has won more matches between Bangkok United and Prachuap?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bangkok United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Prachuap see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bangkok United 48%, Prachuap 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Bangkok United) and 67% (Prachuap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bangkok United keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Prachuap in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bangkok United home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bangkok United play Prachuap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Bangkok United's recent matches and 57% of Prachuap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bangkok United vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Bangkok United's matches and 67% of Prachuap's.
Do Bangkok United and Prachuap tend to score early?
Bangkok United have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bangkok United and Prachuap share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Thammasat Stadium, Regular Season - 14, as Bangkok United and Prachuap drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bangkok United 2.81 xG and Prachuap 0.90 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bangkok United fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bangkok United attack 1.37 / defence 0.79 against Prachuap attack 0.94 / defence 1.54, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bangkok United 77% | Draw 14% | Prachuap 9%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 77%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bangkok United 40%, Prachuap 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bangkok United's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Prachuap's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bangkok United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Prachuap (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.